Mar­kets in tur­moil amid early re­sults in pres­i­den­tial race

Baltimore Sun - - ELECTION 2016 - By James Re­gan and Adam Haigh

“This is go­ing to be a long night and in­vestors should be pre­pared for a tremen­dous amount of mar­ket in­sta­bil­ity ...”

Mar­kets were thrown into dis­ar­ray as early re­sults from the elec­tion showed Hil­lary Clin­ton locked in a tighterthan-an­tic­i­pated race with Don­ald Trump in key bat­tle­ground states.

Pan­icked traders rushed to un­wind bets they piled into over the last two days amid pre­dic­tions Clin­ton would sweep to an easy vic­tory.

Fu­tures on the S&P 500 erased all of a 2.6 per­cent rally from Mon­dayand Tues­day that had stood as the third-big­gest ad­vance ever in the run-up to Elec­tion Day.

Mexico’s peso — a barom­e­ter for in­vestors’ per­cep­tions of the U.S. vote — plunged by the most in eight years, while safe-haven de­mand pushed the yen and gold up by more than 2 per­cent.

Yields on 10-year Trea­suries slid to a two-week low.

“It’s quite scary,” said Nader Naeimi, the Aus­tralian­based head of dy­namic mar­kets at AMP Cap­i­tal In­vestors, which man­ages about $125 bil­lion. “The slight­est move to­ward Trump moved the mar­ket very quickly. The slight­est change in the odds is am­pli­fy­ing mar­ket moves and this just shows there’s a lot at stake. I don’t think it’s a done deal yet; at the end of the day we still don’t know the win­ner. ”

Most polls showed Clin­ton ahead of Trump go­ing into the vote and the first four states to be called were in line with fore­casts.

At stake is lead­er­ship of the world’s largest econ­omy at a time when Amer­ica is di­vided over im­mi­gra­tion, trade and the coun­try’s role in the wider world.

Web­sites that take bets on the pres­i­den­tial vic­tor had put the Demo­crat’s odds of win­ning at 80 per­cent or more prior to the elec­tion.

“Trump is get­ting a greater por­tion of the re­sults than the polls showed go­ing into tonight,” said Chad Mor­gan­lan­der, a money man­ager at Stifel, Ni­co­laus & Co. in Florham Park, N.J., where he helps over­see about $172 bil­lion.

“This is go­ing to be a long night and in­vestors should be pre­pared for a tremen­dous amount of mar­ket in­sta­bil­ity over the next sev­eral hours,” he said.

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