In the end, a drop in turnout led to fall of Clin­ton

But un­of­fi­cial tally shows she’s ahead in the pop­u­lar vote

Baltimore Sun - - ELECTION 2016 - By Philip Bump Associated Press con­trib­uted.

On Tues­day night, Hil­lary Clin­ton ap­pears to have been the choice of a plu­ral­ity of vot­ers to be the next pres­i­dent of the United States.

But Clin­ton will not be the next pres­i­dent be­cause those vot­ers didn’t live in the right places. Clin­ton won big in states that Democrats usu­ally win and closed the gap in big states that Democrats usu­ally lose.

But in smaller states where Demo­cratic vic­to­ries have been nar­rower in re­cent years, Trump got more votes and got the elec­toral votes needed to win the pres­i­dency.

A day af­ter Election Day, Clin­ton held a nar­row lead in the pop­u­lar vote, ac­cord­ing to un­of­fi­cial re­sults tal­lied by The Associated Press. With nearly 125 mil­lion votes counted, Clin­ton had 47.7 per­cent of the vote and Trump had 47.5 per­cent.

Data show how the elec­toral map changed be­tween 2012 and now. In a broad swath across the up­per Mid­west, Trump out­per­formed Mitt Rom­ney by a wide mar­gin.

But that data ob­scure Clin­ton’s prob­lem: She re­ceived far fewer votes than Barack Obama in an election that was sup­posed to see a big in­crease in turnout. Bal­lots are still be­ing counted, so th­ese num­bers will shift, but the Demo­cratic can­di­date re­ceived fewer votes in 2016 than 2012 in 46 states. Trump re­ceived more votes than Rom­ney in 28 states.

In Michi­gan, Clin­ton got 13 per­cent fewer votes than Obama. Trump got 7 per­cent more than Rom­ney.

In Penn­syl­va­nia, Clin­ton got 5 per­cent fewer votes than Obama. Trump got 9 per­cent more than Rom­ney.

In Wis­con­sin, Clin­ton got 15 per­cent fewer votes than Obama. Trump did slightly worse than Rom­ney.

One likely rea­son is that Clin­ton’s get-out-the-vote ef­fort fal­tered, per­haps be­cause she lacked a fer­vent base of sup­port out­side of ma­jor metropoli­tan ar­eas who would vol­un­teer.

In­crease Clin­ton’s vote to­tals 2 per­cent and Clin­ton wins Michi­gan, New Hamp­shire and Wis­con­sin. Boost her sup­port 3 per­cent and she adds Florida and Penn­syl­va­nia — and wins the pres­i­dency. Three per­cent­age points is the sort of dif­fer­ence that a get-out­the-vote ef­fort is sup­posed to make.

Part of that dif­fer­ence could and should have come from big cities in those states, but it didn’t.

This shift in turnout is a part of why pre-election polls missed Trump’s vic­tory.

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