Elec­tion should bring few sur­prises

Cherokee County Herald - - VIEWPOINTS -

You know the out­come of the elec­tion. Un­for­tu­nately I had to go to press with the col­umn prior to Tues­day.

We will an­a­lyze the re­sults for you next week. There should be very few sur­prises.

The Elec­toral Col­lege Sys­tem of se­lect­ing our Pres­i­dent fa­vors a Demo­crat win­ning the White House. Un­der this ar­chaic and un­demo­cratic sys­tem, it is a win­ner take all elec­toral vote con­test. For ex­am­ple, if Hil­lary Clin­ton car­ries New York by one vote, she gets all 29 elec­toral votes.

If Don­ald Trump gets one more vote than Clin­ton in Kansas, he gets all 6 elec­toral votes.

When you look at the map of the red Repub­li­can states car­ried by Trump, it looks like most of the coun­try. The mid­dle of Amer­ica is Repub­li­can but those states have fewer peo­ple. The east and west coasts of the coun­try are fortressed by New York and Cal­i­for­nia.

It is easy to see that the east and west coast out­weigh Mid­dle Amer­ica. The coun­try is trend­ing left­ward philo­soph­i­cally. That is why Cal­i­for­nia is re­ferred to as the left coast. The coun­try is also chang­ing dra­mat­i­cally de­mo­graph­i­cally. An amaz­ing 15 per­cent of our U.S. Elec­torate is His­panic. That makes this vote the most im­por­tant in­gre­di­ent in the pres­i­den­tial con­test. These vot­ers are not to­tally pre­dictable, un­like African Amer­i­can vot­ers, which com­prise 12 per­cent the elec­torate. African Amer­i­can vot­ers mono­lith­i­cally vote 95 per­cent Demo­cratic. There­fore, their votes are pre­de­ter­mined and they are not courted.

Most south­ern whites are the same way. They vote 90 per­cent Repub­li­can.

We in Alabama re­ally do not have a say in pres­i­den­tial pol­i­tics. In­deed very few Amer­i­cans do. If Don­ald Duck was the Repub­li­can nom­i­nee for pres­i­dent, Don­ald Duck would carry Alabama.

How­ever, do not feel left out. If you lived in Cal­i­for­nia you do not mat­ter ei­ther. Cal­i­for­nia has over 10 per­cent of the na­tion’s peo­ple. They have 48 elec­toral votes. They are so lib­eral and Demo­cratic that if Mickey Mouse was the Demo­cratic nom­i­nee, he would carry Cal­i­for­nia and garner all of their elec­toral votes.

There are about 40 states that are pre­dictably safe in ei­ther the Repub­li­can or Demo­cratic col­umn, sim­i­lar to Alabama and Cal­i­for­nia. All the money is spent and cam­paign­ing is done in the 10 piv­otal bat­tle­ground states.

The ul­ti­mate swing state is Florida. The Sun­shine State is now Amer­ica’s third most pop­u­lous state. It is a mi­cro­cosm of Amer­ica, prob­a­bly be­cause most of Amer­ica has moved there to re­tire. There­fore, if you want your vote to count in a pres­i­den­tial race, move down to Florida. It would also make it eas­ier to buy your lot­tery tick­ets. You can prob­a­bly look at Florida and who­ever car­ried Florida Tues­day won the White House.

Our state elec­tions are also pretty much no con­tests in the Novem­ber gen­eral elec­tion. We are a solidly Repub­li­can state. All of our statewide of­fi­cials are Repub­li­can. If you want to win in Alabama you have to do it in the Repub­li­can pri­mary.

Our se­nior U. S. Sen­a­tor Richard Shelby will be re­elected to a 5th sixyear term.

He will soon be Alabama’s long­est serv­ing U.S. Sen­a­tor. He has also been one of our most pow­er­ful. He will join the ranks of Lis­ter Hill and John Spark­man as Alabama’s three great­est U.S. Sen­a­tors.

Pop­u­lar PSC Pres­i­dent Twin­kle An­dress Ca­vanaugh will be re­elected to her sec­ond four-year term. She was first elected to the com­mis­sion in 2010.

Supreme Court Jus­tice Tom Parker will be re­elected to an­other six-year term. He was the largest vote get­ter in the Repub­li­can primaries ear­lier this year.

Kelli Wise will also be re­elected to an­other six-year term on the State Supreme Court. The Geneva County na­tive may be the pret­ti­est Supreme Court Jus­tice in Amer­ica.

All six of our Repub­li­can mem­bers of Congress will have been re­elected on Tues­day. Bradley Byrne, Martha Roby, Mike Rogers, Robert Ader­holt, Mo Brooks and Gary Palmer will con­tinue to rep­re­sent the Heart of Dixie in a very con­ser­va­tive fash­ion for an­other two years. Terri Sewell will con­tinue to be our only Demo­crat.

Tues­day’s elec­tion may be the last that would re­quire res­i­dents to prove that they are U.S. cit­i­zens when reg­is­ter­ing to vote. A fed­eral ap­peals court ap­pears likely to side with vot­ing rights groups seek­ing to block Kansas, Ge­or­gia and Alabama from re­quir­ing proof of cit­i­zen­ship.

Steve Flow­ers is Alabama’s lead­ing po­lit­i­cal colum­nist. His weekly col­umn ap­pears in over 60 Alabama news­pa­pers. He served 16 years in the state leg­is­la­ture. Steve may be reached at www.steve­flow­ers.us.

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