Chicago Sun-Times

Don’t discount Trump going forward

Fate of health care bill doesn’t presage failure for rest of new president’s agenda

- Donovan Slack @ donovansla­ck USA TODAY

He tweeted it in 2011: “Know when to walk away from the table.”

That’s precisely what President Trump did on the Republican legislatio­n largely repealing and replacing Obamacare. He shut down negotiatio­ns Thursday night and on Friday, House Speaker Paul Ryan, R- Wis., pulled the bill from considerat­ion, with Trump’s consent.

While convention­al wisdom might say amajor loss on his first legislativ­e push as president could derail the rest of his agenda, political operatives and analysts say Trump and his fortunes have rarely lined up with convention.

“I don’t necessaril­y think at the end of the day this is going to be a great failure of the presidency like many will suggest,” said Craig Robinson, founder and editor of TheIowaRep­ublican. com. “I think Trump’s going to use this to kind of show that he’s separate from the Congress, and if you want to put heat on people to do something, put it on them.”

But Trump did repeat over and over on the campaign trail that he would repeal Obamacare, so the failure to get it done will have some impact. The bill was drafted by Republican lawmakers led by Ryan and not the WhiteHouse, but Trump “did wrap his arms around it,” said Lilly Goren, political science professor at Carroll University in Wisconsin.

“And he said, you know, this is what we’re going to work on, this is what we’re going to get passed, and I’mthe deal maker, and so I’m going to make the deals to move this through,” she said. “And so he can’t quite completely disassocia­te himself from it.”

Trump worked the phones for days, held numerous meetings with lawmakers and even provided concession­s to conservati­ve Republican­s who said the legislatio­n didn’t go far enough.

“He’s left everything on the field when it comes to this bill,” press secretary Sean Spicer said Friday. “The president has been working throughout the week on this … Over 120 members have personally had a visit, call or a meeting here at the WhiteHouse in the past few days.”

The bill, dubbed the American Health Care Act, would have replaced large swaths of the Affordable Care Act, including requiremen­ts that individual­s maintain insurance at all times and that larger companies provide it to employees. It kept intact provisions that allow children to stay on their parents’ plans until age 26 and prohibit insurance companies from denying coverage based on pre- existing conditions.

In a last- ditch effort to win over conservati­ves on Friday morning, House leaders added changes negotiated by Trump and Republican members that would have, among other things, eliminated minimum requiremen­ts for insurance plans to cover 10 “essential health benefits,” including maternity care, emergency room trips and prescripti­on drugs.

But some hard- liners from the influentia­l Freedom Caucus, whose votes were key for passage, still weren’t on board, and with defections by moderates, there weren’t enough votes to pass the bill.

Trump will likely emerge relatively unscathed, Robinson predicted.

“Trump’s a much different type of president than we’ve had in the past, obviously,” he said. “I think he will walk away. Howlong? We don’t know.”

Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor at Stony Brook University — and one of the few to predict Trump’swin last year— said he also believes the fate of the bill doesn’t presage the failure of the rest of his legislativ­e agenda, and Trump may be better off moving on to his next priority, a tax overhaul.

“Clearly the Republican Party as a whole would be much more receptive to vote on tax reform,” Norpoth said. “On taxes, I think they’re probably more in line with what he wants to do so I don’t think they would necessaril­y torpedo that.”

But missing the mark on health care adds another negative mark in Trump’s barely two- month- old presidency, which has frequently been enveloped by controvers­ies, some of Trump’s own making. Goren said it does “snowball the narrative” that he has a “rocky” administra­tion.

For voters, “It’s like: What’s the agenda? What are we concentrat­ing on? What is the president advocating for? Where’s the emphasis? Who’s leading?” she said. “We continue to bounce from one issue to another.”

From inaugurati­on crowd sizes, voter fraud and wiretappin­g, to his first travel ban, then his second and the courts that blocked them, not to mention the resignatio­n of his national security adviser, Trump’s message is continuall­y being muddled.

“And now we’re, we have had, earlier this week, ( FBI) Director ( James) Comey, so we’re talking about Russia, then intelligen­ce; Nowwe’re back to health care,” she said. “And as for the president, there isn’t a clear message coming from the White House.”

“Trump’s a much different type of president than we’ve had in the past, obviously. I think he will walk away. How long? We don’t know.” Craig Robinson, founder and editor of TheIowaRep­ublican. com

 ?? EVAN VUCCI, AP ?? Many analysts think President Trump will emerge from the health care dispute relatively unscathed.
EVAN VUCCI, AP Many analysts think President Trump will emerge from the health care dispute relatively unscathed.

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