ANAL­Y­SIS

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Santa Anita -

BEST BET: RACE 4, AMBERELLA

FIRST RACE

The com­plex­ion of three grass races (1, 5 and 8) Sun­day could change if rain ar­rives as it is fore­cast. KADE­SHA, run­ner-up last time at nine fur­longs, ben­e­fits from a dis­tance cut­back and switch to a pro­duc­tive rider. Her two wins were at this one­mile dis­tance; she gets Rafael Be­jarano first off the claim and runs back at the same $25k claim­ing level. An off-the-pace “up­set” is brew­ing. BELLE ET BETE raced evenly last out in a $ 40k claim­ing race, her first in nearly two months. She wheels back in 15 days and drops two lev­els. CAN CAN BABE could go fa­vored, and if she re­pro­duces her im­pres­sive last-out win on this course, could make it three straight. The dif­fer­ence is she short­ens from nine fur­longs to one mile, is rac­ing over a turf course that is less firm as last month, and she was claimed away from trainer A.C. Avila. On the other hand, she might sim­ply be the best, sharpest in the field.

SE­COND RACE

UL­TRA SHARP stretches to one mile af­ter a fast run­ner-up come­back in a maiden- 40 sprint. He re­turns at the same level with an up-front run­ning style. Seven of the last 11 dirt races at one mile (through Thurs­day) were won by the pace­set­ter; trainer Craig Dol­lase has won with 4 of his last 11 main-track stretch- outs. Come catch him. RA­DIO SILENT showed life in his come­back early this month, run­ner-up in a maiden-20 while fin­ish­ing more than five clear of third. The class jump is a sign of op­ti­mism; the chal­lenge is his clos­ing style has been in­ef­fec­tive this meet at one mile. RUN THE SHOW has faced bet­ter; he drops from a maiden spe­cial-weight on turf. VODKA TEXTED YOU stretches out, has speed, and could give the top choice a tough time up front. AR­MORED CAR is first-time tag.

THIRD RACE

Se­cond-time starter CANDY BOSS shoudl im­prove off her eighth-place de­but two months ago. She trained well go­ing in, but was cold in the bet­ting at 5-1 and faded af­ter press­ing the pace. Fur­ther com­pli­cat­ing her form is that she was a vet scratch Dec. 26. But she re­turned to work a half-mile two days af­ter the scratch, has main­tained a con­sis­tent work pat­tern through Jan­uary, and should make a for­ward move se­cond time out for trainer John Sadler. JEANA BABY and GUST are first­time starters trained by Peter Miller. If the track comes up wet, JEANA BABY might like it. Prog­eny of Su­per Saver has won 23 per­cent of their wet­track starts ac­cord­ing to Thoro- Graph. The filly’s works look okay, on pa­per. GUST is a Kan­tharos first-time starter that is a sib­ling to Miller-trained G3 win­ner Cal­cu­la­tor. Kan­tharos gets 22 per­cent de­but win­ners; this filly’s works seem okay.

FOURTH RACE

Run­ner-up at this $16k claim­ing N3L level early this month, AMBERELLA looks like a low- odds stand­out in the first leg of the pick six. The con­sis­tent filly has speed for a press­ing trip in this one-mile dirt race, she gets a five-pound weight over most of her ri­vals, is proven at the level and en­ters as a po­ten­tial “sin­gle.” MUDGE was over­matched last out, but her third-place fin­ish in a sprint two back at this level makes her a con­tender. And, she can run long. Her four re­cent routes on dirt pro­duced a win and a third. EASTER FEVER goes sprint to route, Cal-bred N1X al­lowance to re­stricted claim­ing, and is likely to set the pace. The class dive is cu­ri­ous, and her abil­ity to stay two turns is un­cer­tain. But she is fast enough to lead the field as far as she can.

FIFTH RACE

The fore­cast calls for rain, in which case this $75k sprint stakes for fil­lies and mares could be moved to the main track. That would be fine for dirt spe­cial­ist CADET RONI, highly rated N1X

win­ner last out and de­ci­sive win­ner both re­cent starts on the Santa Anita main. The pace-press­ing filly should get a good trip out­side in the clear. If the race is moved to dirt, she likely would face a small field. If the race re­mains on turf, it be­comes a com­plete raf­fle. MY YEAR IS A DAY ran well two weeks ago in a G3 at one mile. She fin­ished fourth while fac­ing a tougher field than she meets in this re­stricted stakes. Sprint­ing might be her best trip. KOOL KAT has an up­set chance first start in two months. She has run well on the hill. MISS DOU­BLE D’ORO missed by only a nose last time in a fine N2X come­back. She is a down­hill spe­cial­ist, two starts on the hill pro­duced a win and a se­cond.

SIXTH RACE

In this maiden-30 mish­mash for 3yo fil­lies, drop­per LADY WEDGE might be the right choice. She faced bet­ter her first three starts, and now drops to the bot­tom. First-time starter CHAR­LIE MY LOVE is the first foal from an un­raced sib­ling to In­dian Char­lie. Maidens from this out­fit gen­er­ally race their way into shape, but this field came up un­usu­ally weak. It’s a good spot for a new shooter. BLAZEINBLAIRSDEN and TRULY YOURS both have speed. The truth is, this race is im­pos­si­ble.

SEV­ENTH RACE

KAFIS­TER ran a win­ning race last out, run­ner-up at this N2X level with a good num­ber (90 Beyer). The con­sis­tent geld­ing is 6-for-13 over this track; the knock is he is “stuck” at the con­di­tion. This is his sixth try at N2X. He fin­ished in the money three straight. AMER­I­CAN PRIDE also is a Santa Anita spe­cial­ist, hav­ing won 3 of 4 here. He re­turned to form last out with an up­set while run­ning for a $ 40k claim tag. He moves up one level, while “pro­tected.” That is, he is not en­tered for a claim tag. He is sharp, ver­sa­tile, fast and an ob­vi­ous con­tender. TEXAS TWO STEP has been gelded since his come­back. He goes route to sprint and will roll late. New York ship­per EIGHTY THREE might be ranked too low by this hand­i­cap­per; he will be among the fa­vorites based on his highly rated races in the East. If it rains, that might be fine. He is 2-for-2 on wet. CHIEF LION is an up­set can­di­date likely to of­fer value due to his mod­est speed fig­ures. But he is a pro, with a his­tory of out­run­ning his odds. He has won three races at Santa Anita in­clud­ing up­sets at $25 and $26.

EIGHTH RACE

A sign­f­i­cant drop from open $ 50k claim­ing to Cal-bred al­lowance/op­tional $20k claim­ing makes HUS­BAND’S FOLLY the tepid choice in this mile and one- eighth race sched­uled for turf. He has a lop­sided num­ber of sec­onds and thirds rel­a­tive to wins (5 wins, 18 two-three fin­ishes), but his re­cent form is ac­cept­able (fifth last out) and he han­dles any foot­ing. He might ben­e­fit if this grass race is moved to a wet main track. He hit the board all three starts on wet. SIZ­ZLIN’ JOE is an­other with a lop­sided record (four wins, 14 two-three fin­ishes). The closer drops from open $ 25k claim­ing, re­tains Be­jarano and also han­dles any foot­ing. LOS GATOS is fresh, train­ing well and ready to fire first start since Au­gust. He is a turf spe­cial­ist that is un­proven on dirt. PREACHER ROE has speed and should be for­wardly placed in a race with­out much pace.

NINTH RACE

GNARLY DUDE is the ob­vi­ous fa­vorite in this $ 8k claim­ing sprint. Claimed last out from a highly rated (82 Beyer) run­ner-up fin­ish at this level, he re­turns at the same class for good first- off-the­claim trainer Steve Miyadi. The knock on GNARLY DUDE is that he seems to have de­vel­oped a “pack men­tal­ity.” Af­ter start­ing his ca­reer win­ning 7 of his first 23 starts, he won just 1 of 19 since. Trust him in deep stretch? Nope. SIR BAR­CLAY fin­ished be­hind the top choice last out, but that was af­ter set­ting a fast pace to deep stretch. The sharp claim­ing vet­eran is the one to catch. COL­LA­TION is an up­set can­di­date. His re­cent form is dull, but he tries a rider switch and has a bul­let work­out here one week ago. He once was good enough for this level, and might like a wet track. Bombs away at a mil­lion to one? EL NINO TER­RI­BLE drops to the bot­tom for the first time.

TAKE­OUT IN­FOR­MA­TION

■ Win, place, and show: 15.43 %

■ Two-horse ex­otic wa­ger­ing: 22.68%

■ Tri­fecta, Su­per­fecta, Su­per Hi 5, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6: 23.68%

■ Pick 5: 14%

■ Daily Dou­ble: 20%

NOTE: A horse which wins a non-win­ners of $3,000 other than maiden or claim­ing, or two races, for Cal­breds, shall re­main el­i­gi­ble for that com­pa­ra­ble open al­lowance race, pro­vided that horse did not win a race other than claim­ing fol­low­ing that Cal-Bred win. Once a horse has won the two first con­di­tion al­lowance races (Cal-Bred and open), then the Cal Bred win will be dis­re­garded in fu­ture al­lowance races for el­i­gi­bil­ity pur­poses only.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from USA

© PressReader. All rights reserved.