ANAL­Y­SIS

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Saratoga -

BEST BET: RACE 6, RAPPEL

FIRST RACE

BAL­ANCE THE BUD­GET won his first start back off the lay­off, and then opened a huge lead in his sec­ond start over soft ground be­fore last­ing for 2nd; can run bet­ter here drop­ping out of the Grade 1 Smith­wick. NO WUNDER didn’t jump his best in stakes com­pany mak­ing his first start up here, but he did much bet­ter to just come up short last time while out­fin­ish­ing sev­eral of these. HARDROCK ELEVEN look­ing for first win since go­ing backto-back last Septem­ber, the first of those wins com­ing up here; set the pace be­fore fad­ing be­hind NO WUNDER last time while jump­ing out badly all the way.

SEC­OND RACE

ONE MORE ROUND has his is­sues, and he was listed as a vet scratch from a $50k claimer ear­lier in the meet, but he also has run some races when feel­ing right that would make him very hard on this field; can have that first start back from the lay­off in the slop where he was off poorly from the gate and left far be­hind early be­fore ral­ly­ing some late. FORGE ran well up here in his de­but as a 2yo, and he du­eled the pace in his first start of the year be­fore suc­cumb­ing in the stretch; big class drop for trainer look­ing to se­cure sec­ond straight Saratoga ti­tle. YOUR SE­CRET’S SAFE dropped ear­lier in the meet and dis­ap­pointed over that sloppy track ahead of ONE MORE ROUND while fail­ing to run down a 115/1 shot on the lead; new trainer ex­cel­lent off the claim.

THIRD RACE

MIN­SKY MO­MENT scratched out of last Fri­day’s Al­bany, which was won by his sta­ble­mate Twisted Tom, to await this eas­ier spot; tough here af­ter be­ing badly com­pro­mised while wide over a strong in­side track last time. BORN FOR A STORM the other Chad, and he wheels back in quickly af­ter get­ting wired in a sprint here last week; stretches out for the first time. CON­TROL GROUP look­ing for three in a row af­ter wiring a three-life claimer that was taken off-the-turf over course and dis­tance last time; up in class for this, but fig­ures say he fits.

FOURTH RACE

SHIM­MER­ING MOON flashed some abil­ity early on but took a while to put it all to­gether for her prior trainer, but think she may have started to come around this year, and she was con­vinc­ing in her first start for Nevin while track­ing from the out­side be­fore tak­ing over and draw­ing away with a new top fig­ure.; well-posted out­side the other speed COZZY SPRING looked good us­ing her speed to win back-to-back races ear­lier this sum­mer at Belmont, in­clud­ing that top fig­ure win two back where she went fast early and wouldn’t let the closers in late; for­get that last one where she never looked com­fort­able over turf. SILLY SIS­TER cut the pace and was no match for the tal­ented Sun­set Ridge in a fast race last time; was head­ing the right way prior to that one, and she may fall into a trip here if the top two race for it early.

FIFTH RACE

ULTIMATEENTICEMENT shipped in to face NY-breds ear­lier in the meet and used his speed to good ef­fect be­fore fall­ing to a tal­ented and wellmeant firster from Chad Brown’s barn; tough with a re­peat per­for­mance, un­less one of the first time starters can go. NEW YORK HERO may be most likely of those to show up right away as a half to the tal­ented run­ner, and ex­cel­lent 2yo Up­start for a top trainer. FIVE STAR BUNT has landed in a cou­ple of tough races for the level so far vs. the likes of Morn­ing Breeze and sub­se­quent stakes win­ner Aveenu Mal­cainu, and liked that he had more speed last time as he goes shorter from the rail.

SIXTH RACE

May be com­ing too late for RAPPEL, but like him cutting back to sprint af­ter dis­ap­point­ing over

time go­ing longer; re­cent races leave some­thing to be de­sired, but he is not as bad as his over­all record makes him look, and he be­gan his ca­reer with some prom­ise as a sprinter. ROYAL AS­SET may be a bet­ter dirt horse, but he has run well on turf from lim­ited tries, and he looks like the lone speed in this field. RATE FOR ME re­quired a drop in to the claim­ing ranks to break his maiden, but he did that con­vinc­ingly, and then came right back to win again over this track and trip; tries to keep it go­ing vs. bet­ter. GRAND SKY upped his game sig­nif­i­cantly off the claim for Ja­son Servis, who is in the midst of a very strong meet up here, and who is es­pe­cially stong with turf horses off the claim; threat step­ping back up if he can re­peat that last one.

SEV­ENTH RACE

GRAND VAL­OUR had his de­but rained off the grass and he lacked early speed in that short sprint be­fore com­ing wide and rac­ing on with some in­ter­est in the stretch; half to a three-time turf route win­ner stretches out for trainer who ex­cels with sec­ond time-start­ing maid­ens, though most of her suc­cess in that cat­e­gory has come with dirt horses. GOSILENTLY made lone turf start last year vs. NY-breds and didn’t run poorly at all while ral­ly­ing late to get a piece; ships back in af­ter find­ing im­proved speed, and im­proved fig­ures out of town. AP­PEAL­ING BRIEFS has set­tled for sec­ondbest in each of his last two starts since ship­ping back up to NY this sum­mer, but he has run well both times and fits well in this field once again; run­ning out of chances.

EIGHTH RACE

ODE TO THE HUNT one of four ex­it­ing the 8/6 race for this con­di­tion up here which was con­tested over a mile on the in­ner turf where he fin­ished be­hind both Man­i­fest Des­tiny and Storm Prophet, but think he is the one you want out of that race - if you want any - as he was in traf­fic for much of the stretch run af­ter fail­ing to get him­self into a con­tend­ing po­si­tion in the early stages; giv­ing him one more chance sec­ond off the lay­off. MIS­SION

LEADER’s lone turf start to date was a solid ef­fort for sec­ond be­hind the tal­ented Voodoo Song as a 2yo; switches back to try again as a new geld­ing af­ter hav­ing his most re­cent start in May rained off. JUPITER RIS­ING won his turf de­but on a class drop for Mike Hush­ion, and he was both­ered in the stretch while in con­tention last time at this level; have no prob­lem giv­ing him an­other chance in this field as he switches to the Pletcher barn.

NINTH RACE

ORBOLUTION went 0-2 on dirt early on, but she im­proved with the switch to turf, as her pedi­gree sug­gested she would, to de­feat maid­ens eas­ily af­ter a nice trip; looks tough in P. G. John­son that didn’t come up as tough as it usu­ally does. WILD N READY a maiden stretch­ing out in stakes com­pany, but it’s not a strong 100-grander, and she was along late for 3rd in that sprint de­but af­ter los­ing some po­si­tion early on; barn tends to let them race them­selves into shape, and it would be no sur­prise to find this one tak­ing a sig­nif­i­cant step for­ward in this spot. SASSY SI­ENNA was clev­erly rid­den as the fa­vorite in her In­di­ana de­but, and she did the rest once clear in the stretch to post an easy win; picks up Castel­lano for an ex­cel­lent trainer.

TENTH RACE

DELTA OUTLAW re­turn­ing from long lay­off that ex­tends back to last year’s meet, and it is rea­son­able to ex­pect him to need one on the way back, but he is bet­ter than these horses by quite a bit if even close to the same horse, and he has speed from the rail. BUNYAAN turn­ing back off the claim for Linda Rice af­ter set­tling for sec­ond-best to a bet­ter horse rout­ing last time; has never won sprint­ing but don’t mind him try­ing this dis­tance.

HAY LIS­TEN UP faced steep turn­back all the way to six last time af­ter trou­ble at the start left him chas­ing a fast pace go­ing longer in his first start of the meet; tough post, but he has some speed.

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