ANAL­Y­SIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, ZUZANNA

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Del Mar -

FIRST RACE

UH OH BABY has worked like a colt that will fire first time out. Pur­chased for $52k in July; the 2yo makes his de­but in a maiden-80, which makes sense. Fur­ther­more, trainer Craig Dol­lase has a ter­rific record with first-time starters. The past five years, Dol­lase is 12-for-47 with rook­ies, a 26 per­cent win rate that pro­duced a $3.08 re­turn per $2 win bet. UH OH BABY is ready to roll. MID­NIGHT RUN fin­ished sec­ond in his de­but. The race was a low-rated af­fair, but maid­ens from this sta­ble tend to im­prove with rac­ing. COLORMEMONEY fin­ished sec­ond in his de­but at In­di­ana Grand; he makes his Cal­i­for­nia de­but for trainer Bob Hess, who is 5-for23 this meet with do­mes­tic ship­pers.

SEC­OND RACE

PRI­VATE TER­RACE takes a du­bi­ous drop to $8k, first start af­ter she was claimed from a nose loss for $12.5k. It is a sus­pi­cious drop, but the mare’s best re­cent races are good enough for this group. PAPERCOVERSROCK stretches out and drops to the bot­tom af­ter a pair of sprints vs. Cal-bred al­lowance sprint­ers. She can run long; this field is not par­tic­u­larly deep. VERON­ICA BAY dom­i­nated a sim­i­lar group last out, win­ning by more than three. Can she run two alike? If yes, she would be right there. SWISS SKIMMER won a $20k claim­ing turf route two back at long odds, then fin­ished last in her most re­cent start here for $32k claim­ing. Seems like turf and syn­thetic might be her pre­ferred footing, but on re­cent abil­ity, she is one of sev­eral with cre­den­tials.

THIRD RACE

The pick six be­gins with a scram­ble turf route, $62,500 maiden-claim­ing. It might be a good spot for an up­set by VEGASTRUCK. She merely ran around the track in her come­back sprint early this month; in her only pre­vi­ous turf race she fin­ished within hail­ing range of spe­cial-weight maid­ens. The 5yo mare is mak­ing just her fifth ca­reer start; she can post a mild up­set in a messy race ripe for a long­shot win­ner. The fa­mil­iar faces seem du­bi­ous, though the run­ner-up fin­ish last out by PADDY JEAN was the best of her ca­reer, and stamps her as a po­ten­tial fa­vorite. She opened up in mid­stretch, got run down over late, but fin­ished more than three lengths clear of third. She wheels back in two weeks, and if able to run two alike could be tough to catch. TIZ BAILEE has run races that put her in the hunt; OURROSEOFTHENILE will pick them up late; CIAO BELLA ROSA drops in for a tag for her first start since Fe­bru­ary. Fresh filly like to fire her best shot first start back.

FOURTH RACE

The run­ner-up fin­ish last out by BRADDOCK was val­i­dated when the win­ner and fourth-place fin­isher re­turned to win. BRADDOCK comes back at the same level ($25k claim­ing N2L, or 3yos), he has speed for a press­ing trip out­side. Likely win­ner if he runs two alike. HANK THE TANK raced evenly in a cred­itable fourth-place come­back, on turf. He drops in class, from open $40k claim­ing to re­stricted $25k, and re­turns to pre­ferred footing, which seems to be dirt. FIRE TO THE WIRE also re­turns to dirt, and shows up in his first claim­ing race.

FIFTH RACE

ZUZANNA en­ters this turf route for $50k claim­ing 3yo fil­lies as the most prob­a­ble win­ner on the card. She scored a sharp $40k claim­ing win last out in her Cal­i­for­nia de­but, the race was flat­tered when the sec­ond and fifth-place fin­ish­ers re­turned to win. ZUZANNA was claimed by Jack Car­ava, who is 8-for-16 first off the claim since last fall. LOOK­ING AT THELAKE drops from starter al­lowance races vs. older into a claim­ing race for 3yo fil­lies. She will be rolling late, while SIMMY’S TEM­PLE is in okay form, and mak­ing her first start since be­ing claimed. She was no match for the top choice last out, how­ever.

SIXTH RACE

SMIL­ING TIGRESS can post a mi­nor up­set in this maiden race for Cal-bred 2yo fil­lies. She ran well in her de­but, then sec­ond out was not away well, got stuck be­hind run­ners and ap­peared un­com­fort­able, and mis­fired. ‘TIGRESS was ex­pected to run Aug. 4, but got loose in the post pa­rade and scratched. She posted three solid works since for trainer David Bern­stein, and might be bet­ter than her first two

starts in­di­cate. First-time starter IT’S ABOUT ALEX en­tered the Gen­er­ous Por­tion Stakes on Wed­nes­day; this maiden race is a more likely spot if she draws in. She hails from a sta­ble that oc­ca­sion­ally pops with this type. She is trained by Steve Miyadi, who also en­tered SING A SOLO. The lat­ter missed by a nose in a cred­itable de­but. SU­PER PA­TRIOT fin­ished sixth of eight as the fa­vorite in her lack­lus­ter de­but. Blink­ers on for her sec­ond start; have to be­lieve she is bet­ter than her de­but. The sharp turf-sprint filly LA­JATICO wheels back in two weeks and moves up in class af­ter an im­pres­sive N2X win. Wide press­ing a fast pace, she came away late. It was a sharp win by a filly at the top of her game. She might be the speed of the speed, and can score right back if she runs as well as 15 days ago. LONG HOT SUM­MER scored a per­fect-trip stakes win last out over this course on which she is choice, ‘SUM­MER will be rolling from off the pace. WATCH THIS CAT set the pace and ran well in de­feat, run­ner-up in a stakes race won by ‘SUMMMER. From the in­side post, ‘CAT could tuck into a ground-sav­ing trip right be­hind the speed. BELVOIR BAY adds heat, while SNOW CLOUD will rally from the back.

EIGHTH RACE

Also-el­i­gi­ble lis­ters HARD ARCH and EM­PIRE RULER are the choices in this maiden-2oroute, drop­ping from a two-three fin­ish in a maiden40. Nei­ther has raced at this bot­tom level; both have num­bers fast enough to han­dle this cast. If they do not draw into the field, then GATO DOLCE be­comes the de­fault se­lec­tion in his eighth try at this bot­tom level. In the money six of his seven pre­vi­ous maiden-20 ef­forts, he will be among the early lead­ers. KENZOU’S RHYTHM re­turns from a two-month fresh­en­ing; his third-place fin­ish two starts back at this level might be fast enough. COOL HUNTER might be ranked too low by this hand­i­cap­per. Run­ner-up last out af­ter set­ting the pace in a sprint, he is the likely pace­set­ter. Come and catch him.

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