ANAL­Y­SIS

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Belmont -

BEST BET: RACE 2, GLOBAL PO­SI­TION­ING

FIRST RACE

MICOZZI re­turns for what is os­ten­si­bly his 3yo de­but while drop­ping in class for the first time and adding blink­ers for his first start for Michelle Nevin; wouldn’t ap­pear to have had to im­prove all that much dur­ing his time off to im­pact this field and he is nicely drawn on the out­side. Four starts and four run­ner-up fin­ishes so far for REFINANCE, who has yet to make it re­ally close at the end of any of those races, and who was last seen prov­ing no match as an odds-on fa­vorite over a mile; drops again off the claim, but turn­ing back to sprint can help. ARCHIVAL was edg­ing away late last time when a bit of care­less rid­ing cost him a win in what was his first start odd the Ja­cob­son claim; likely tough right back if just able show up with a sim­i­lar ef­fort.

SEC­OND RACE

GLOBAL PO­SI­TION­ING fac­ing a ri­val or two who are el­i­gi­ble to reach back and find a race that would be too much for him, but he is a bit bet­ter than he may ap­pear at first glance, and he is el­i­gi­ble to fire his best shot first off the Rudy claim (past year, first off claim, dirt sprints: 17 for 38, 45%, $3.49 ROI); last seen tir­ing off a fast pace go­ing seven, but his speed projects to play well in this field, and he doesn’t need the lead to be ef­fec­tive. PEDRO CERRANO was not as good as DROVER CRAZY out in Cal­i­for­nia, but that ri­val has not yet man­aged to bring his good form East, while PEDRO CERRANO will en­ter this race with the top last out Beyer Speed Fig­ure by a clear mar­gin earned in win­ning ef­fort at Del Mar while fac­ing a field of sim­i­lar qual­ity; seems a big threat as he makes his first start for Ja­cob­son. DROVER CRAZY has man­aged only two starts since ship­ping over from Cal­i­for­nia in good form, and he did not run well ei­ther time while fac­ing some bet­ter horses; takes big drop off the Diodoro re-claim.

THIRD RACE

BUILD TO SUIT has hit the wire first in four of his five ca­reer starts, with the lone loss com­ing over a mile be­hind sub­se­quent graded stakes win­ner Gi­ant Ex­pec­ta­tions; no fig­ure edge on this field, but he has looked good de­feat­ing solid older ri­vals over this dis­tance in his last two starts. TRUE TIMBER hasn’t quite class-up vs. stakes com­pe­ti­tion this year, but he has im­proved his form, and think turn­ing back to sprint for the first time since post­ing his maiden win early on is a good thing for him; worth point­ing out that that love ca­reer win came in a race that com­pletely melted down off a fast and con­tested pace, and he was there to take ad­van­tage. CINDERELA EL CROME a clas­sic over­achiever step­ping up off big up­set win in starter al­lowance com­pany last month, for which he earned a new top fig­ure; don’t dis­count as he steps up in class.

FOURTH RACE

Turf im­prove­ment pos­si­ble for SKYLER’S LIL CUTIE, who is a half to two-time turf win­ner Cloud Con­trol land­ing in field lack­ing for any kind of com­pelling grass form; 3yo filly has raced greenly in her three main track starts, es­pe­cially when she has been forced to race through kick­back, which isn’t an is­sue now, and she is putting races to­gether for the first time here. OUT OF NOWHERE tough to have too much con­fi­dence in at cur­rent 0-15 on turf, but she is bet­ter sprint­ing, and her lone start for a tag on grass thus far came go­ing longer; re­peat of ef­fort three back vs. MSW com­pany would make her very tough in this spot. STARSHIP ROCKETTE doesn’t have much early speed, but she is an im­proved horse since switch­ing to turf, and she may have waited a bit too long to get go­ing in that last one be­fore fin­ish­ing gamely for 3rd; think the shorter dis­tance of this race helps her, but she needs some pace.

FIFTH RACE

In­ter­ested to see what SETHARY does as a fol­lowup to course-record per­for­mance over this dis­tance last month, which was con­tested over a very firm turf course; rea­son­ably spot­ted for first

start out of the maiden ranks, and he clearly won’t have to run quite that well to win right back, but there is other speed in this race. FORGE made lone start on turf as a 2yo, and he did not run poorly that day af­ter hav­ing some trou­ble at the start and then try­ing to get in all through the stretch; back to grass sec­ond off the claim af­ter putting up solid fig­ure in blowout maiden win on dirt two starts back. VENTRY BAY dropped to win shorter sprint at Saratoga with an im­proved fig­ure, then backed that race up well when just miss­ing at Kentucky Downs last month; threat in cur­rent form and he has speed. BAD GUY adding Lasix and get­ting a pos­i­tive trainer change as he drops in class af­ter land­ing in four pretty tough maiden races through­out the sum­mer; fig­ures tough if any one of the three pos­i­tive changes makes the dif­fer­ence for him, though he is not the only one drop­ping in this field. FIVE STAR BUNT try­ing for a fourth time over this short sprint dis­tance, this time with maiden claimers, though he is fac­ing sev­eral oth­ers who are also drop­ping in class; good ef­fort in that last one when con­test­ing the pace all the way be­fore get­ting run over late, and he had no chance with Aveenu Mal­cainu one start prior. Like the top two MR. HOT ROCKS was look­ing for class re­lief drop­ping on for $50k, but he may not have found enough if it; game fin­ish for 3rd be­hind his sharp and heav­ily-bet en­try mate last time.

SEV­ENTH RACE

ALTAR BOY was tak­ing a sig­nif­i­cant drop in class when pick­ing up first win of 2017 last month, but he won that race much eas­ier than the fi­nal mar­gin may sug­gest while un­der con­fi­dent han­dling, and he projects to be tough right back as he goes off the claim for an un­der­rated trainer. UN­CLE SIGH needs some pace to de­velop in or­der to have his best chance, but his re­cent form is solid, and he was a bit un­lucky last time when get­ting in tight and hav­ing to steady on the turn, and then hav­ing to swing widest into the stretch. SOUPERFAST came with a nice run to close down a solid pace over this in­ner course in June, and he has since landed in a pair of races that were tak­ing wire-towire, in­clud­ing a very fast race up­state (103 Beyer for the win­ner); projects to have a fair pace to run at here, but he can stay close if he has to.

EIGHTH RACE

MON­STER BEA was an im­prov­ing 3yo turf horse last year, and don’t think he has been given the best chance to im­prove on that form from only four starts so far in 2017 while ship­ping around; fin­ished gamely to just miss catch­ing an in-form Zen­nor over this turf course back in June and he then went back into graded stakes com­pany to no avail, but he can im­pact this kind of race at a price. A LOT mak­ing be­lated 2017 de­but fol­low­ing a long lay­off; think he is a bet­ter horse than sta­ble­mate TOMBE­LAINE, and he is likely too good for this kind of field with his best race, but it’s not like he is a pro­lific win­ner, and the lay­off has to be some­thing of a con­cern. TOMBE­LAINE back to a more ap­pro­pri­ate level af­ter tak­ing Grade 2 shot at Woodbine last time; game win over a good field over course and dis­tance prior to that one, and this mile is just about his limit.

NINTH RACE

THREE GOALS isn’t ex­actly by a sire known for early suc­cess on dirt, but he does have speed on the dam side be­ing out of a mare who won four of eight sprint­ing on dirt, and she was fast early; trainer qui­etly does a solid job with first-time starters. JUS­TI­FI­ABLE by a sprint sire and from the fam­ily of the mul­ti­ple graded stakes win­ner Hum­ble Clerk on the dam-side as he de­buts for ca­pa­ble first out trainer; gap in the works fol­low­ing spin over turf on 8/7 a con­cern. PANAMA ED has done noth­ing spe­cial on the track so far, but he owns valu­able ex­pe­ri­ence in field com­prised mostly of first-time starters, and he is drop­ping in class for this af­ter ap­par­ently be­ing gelded since his last start. EQUAL THE SCORE one to use in this spot as he has the best pedi­gree in the field for an ex­cel­lent trainer, though Rice does tend to give them a race to get ready.

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