BEST BET: RACE 10, ZIPPING
EQUITY went down as the favorite in his latest but he ran a strong race in defeat, closing with interest despite a slow opening fraction; may be able to make he last run given a better set-up. PAIR PAIR TIE finally broke through to earn his diploma last time out, in his 19th career start; resulting Beyer gives him credibility against this seemingly mediocre field. THE MESS has high speed and will take them as far as he can on the front end; dangerous if able to shake loose.
STARSHIP BONITA has some of the better Beyers in the field and she turned in a couple of nice works since her last most recent, her second game score in the Florida Stallion Series; tactical speed and inside post makes a favorable trip likely. SILVER BAY merits respect on the strength of her debut run, an easy score which produced a representative figure; obviously the biggest threat to the top pick. LIL B QUICK has high speed and will likely look to steal it; race-long duel cost her in her latest, her first start vs. winners.
ENTERPRISING has been facing much, much better than what he meets here, including that effort three back when he was less than a length behind Beach Patrol, who came up a half-length short of winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf last week; clearly going to be tough at this level. GALLEON MAST is obviously in top form, having won three straight and posting the best Beyers of his career; could prove the main danger in the lane. TOTAL JOINT should be well spotted behind likely speeds CHARLIE MOPS and MY POINT EXACTLY.
WILDCAT’S LEGACY is easy to like on the strength of that debut Beyer, and he also figures tough here given his running style and the likely race flow, as he should be sitting off a lively pace; sharp work on Saturday indicates he retains his edge. REED KAN made the lead and gave nothing a chance in his 2nd career start, a stark improvement over his debut try when he was green early on; won’t offer 55-1 (!) again but he is one to consider strongly off that 77 Beyer. OH MY WARRIOR overtook the leader and drew off smartly in the slop in his bow; the figure comes up a little light compared with the top pair but he certainly has lots of room to improve in only his 2nd career start.
OVETCHKIN JAGR didn’t show much in that debut try but he has been training well toward his return, and his dam posted her lone career win on the grass; expecting improvement. FLYING LIBERTY has yet to run a poor race, hitting the board in each of his first three starts and running well each time; tactical speed a big reason for his success. SEATTLE TREASURE stretches out on the turf for the first time and that was her dam’s best game; Seattle Showers also produced Alpha Slew, who won five races on the green.
SWEETONTHELADIES was behind SPLASH RULES when they met last time out but the former’s works in the interim strongly suggest he’s going to run an improved race today; he’ll need it, as his Beyers are light compared with the top contenders, but he’s worth considering at a price based on the work tab alone. YOURDREAMSORMINE posted a triple-digit Beyer when last seen, and he now
makes his first start off the claim; note that the slow start two back very likely cost him. QUIJOTE, unseen since the Smile Sprint, seems to fit well based on his best figures.
CROWN TO THE GOLD was no threat to the winner but he just missed catching HE’S A LEADER despite spotting position to that runner; both were flattered when King Angelus returned to repeat in his first start against winners. HE’S A LEADER made a mid-race run to grab a clear lead down the backstretch last time but was run down easily by the winner late; positional speed and inside post could mean he’s again well spotted off the speeds. ACCOLADE was well off the board in his debut, in his only other try on the turf, but the figure he earned there makes him the one to beat.
SWEET KHALEESI makes her first start since late August but she has been training well toward this return; she was certainly sharp prior to the break, running 1st or 2nd in each of her last four starts, and she’ll be tough here if she’s able to run to that last figure. MAMA JOYCE also has solid recent figures and comes off two consecutive wins; tactical speed should mean she works out a trip regardless of race flow. YES I’LL GO does seem to be at her best when she’s on the lead, and she can be expected to try to make the lead under Batista.
DANCING STARLET moved way up in a big way with the move to the turf last time out, closing strongly to score at 40-1 despite racing behind a tepid early pace; the resulting Beyer puts her in the middle of this, but she has room to move up today if she gets faster splits up front. GIFT OF GLORY merits respect off her most recent turf Beyer, and she’s another who figures to make her presence felt in the late stages; her other grass figures are a little light but she has yet to run a poor race on the green. UNSTABLENTHEMORNIN failed her dirt test last time but she certainly figures to fare better today with the move back to the grass.
ZIPPING meets the best field he’s faced yet on the main track but he may be up to it, if the effort he turned in two back is any indication; true, he only beat four horses, and it was over a sloppy strip, but the resulting Beyer makes him a big threat here; quick enough to lead but also able to rate off the pace and make one run. HY RIVERSIDE hasn’t been close of late but he also hasn’t gotten any pace help, and that should change today; looms a live longshot if he gets a quick, contested pace up front. MR. JORDAN meets much lesser than he did in that last one, and that makes him a rebound candidate; should appreciate this move into the statebred ranks.
METZ is a different horse on dirt and turf, so those poor recent efforts are easily overlooked; his turf figures are better than most of these, and if he can run to those efforts in his third start off the layoff he has license to win this, likely at a decent price. GEAR JAMMER drops in his first start off the claim, and this new barn wins at a high rate with fresh faces; tactical speed a big reason for his success. WEEZA GONE GRAY rarely lasts but he will likely be on a loose lead, and he could get brave if able to back down the fractions some.