ANAL­Y­SIS

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Gulfstream West -

BEST BET: RACE 10, ZIP­PING

FIRST RACE

EQUITY went down as the favorite in his lat­est but he ran a strong race in de­feat, clos­ing with in­ter­est de­spite a slow open­ing frac­tion; may be able to make he last run given a bet­ter set-up. PAIR PAIR TIE fi­nally broke through to earn his di­ploma last time out, in his 19th ca­reer start; re­sult­ing Beyer gives him cred­i­bil­ity against this seem­ingly me­diocre field. THE MESS has high speed and will take them as far as he can on the front end; dan­ger­ous if able to shake loose.

SEC­OND RACE

STAR­SHIP BONITA has some of the bet­ter Bey­ers in the field and she turned in a cou­ple of nice works since her last most re­cent, her sec­ond game score in the Florida Stal­lion Se­ries; tac­ti­cal speed and in­side post makes a fa­vor­able trip likely. SIL­VER BAY mer­its re­spect on the strength of her de­but run, an easy score which pro­duced a rep­re­sen­ta­tive fig­ure; ob­vi­ously the big­gest threat to the top pick. LIL B QUICK has high speed and will likely look to steal it; race-long duel cost her in her lat­est, her first start vs. win­ners.

THIRD RACE

EN­TER­PRIS­ING has been fac­ing much, much bet­ter than what he meets here, in­clud­ing that ef­fort three back when he was less than a length be­hind Beach Pa­trol, who came up a half-length short of win­ning the Breed­ers’ Cup Turf last week; clearly go­ing to be tough at this level. GALLEON MAST is ob­vi­ously in top form, hav­ing won three straight and post­ing the best Bey­ers of his ca­reer; could prove the main dan­ger in the lane. TO­TAL JOINT should be well spot­ted be­hind likely speeds CHAR­LIE MOPS and MY POINT EX­ACTLY.

FOURTH RACE

WILD­CAT’S LE­GACY is easy to like on the strength of that de­but Beyer, and he also fig­ures tough here given his run­ning style and the likely race flow, as he should be sit­ting off a lively pace; sharp work on Satur­day in­di­cates he re­tains his edge. REED KAN made the lead and gave noth­ing a chance in his 2nd ca­reer start, a stark im­prove­ment over his de­but try when he was green early on; won’t offer 55-1 (!) again but he is one to con­sider strongly off that 77 Beyer. OH MY WAR­RIOR over­took the leader and drew off smartly in the slop in his bow; the fig­ure comes up a lit­tle light com­pared with the top pair but he cer­tainly has lots of room to im­prove in only his 2nd ca­reer start.

FIFTH RACE

OVETCHKIN JAGR didn’t show much in that de­but try but he has been train­ing well to­ward his re­turn, and his dam posted her lone ca­reer win on the grass; ex­pect­ing im­prove­ment. FLY­ING LIB­ERTY has yet to run a poor race, hit­ting the board in each of his first three starts and run­ning well each time; tac­ti­cal speed a big rea­son for his suc­cess. SEAT­TLE TREA­SURE stretches out on the turf for the first time and that was her dam’s best game; Seat­tle Show­ers also pro­duced Al­pha Slew, who won five races on the green.

SIXTH RACE

SWEETONTHELADIES was be­hind SPLASH RULES when they met last time out but the for­mer’s works in the in­terim strongly sug­gest he’s go­ing to run an im­proved race to­day; he’ll need it, as his Bey­ers are light com­pared with the top con­tenders, but he’s worth con­sid­er­ing at a price based on the work tab alone. YOURDREAMSORMINE posted a triple-digit Beyer when last seen, and he now

makes his first start off the claim; note that the slow start two back very likely cost him. QUI­JOTE, un­seen since the Smile Sprint, seems to fit well based on his best fig­ures.

SEV­ENTH RACE

CROWN TO THE GOLD was no threat to the win­ner but he just missed catch­ing HE’S A LEADER de­spite spot­ting po­si­tion to that run­ner; both were flat­tered when King An­gelus re­turned to re­peat in his first start against win­ners. HE’S A LEADER made a mid-race run to grab a clear lead down the back­stretch last time but was run down eas­ily by the win­ner late; po­si­tional speed and in­side post could mean he’s again well spot­ted off the speeds. AC­CO­LADE was well off the board in his de­but, in his only other try on the turf, but the fig­ure he earned there makes him the one to beat.

EIGHTH RACE

SWEET KHALEESI makes her first start since late Au­gust but she has been train­ing well to­ward this re­turn; she was cer­tainly sharp prior to the break, run­ning 1st or 2nd in each of her last four starts, and she’ll be tough here if she’s able to run to that last fig­ure. MAMA JOYCE also has solid re­cent fig­ures and comes off two con­sec­u­tive wins; tac­ti­cal speed should mean she works out a trip re­gard­less of race flow. YES I’LL GO does seem to be at her best when she’s on the lead, and she can be ex­pected to try to make the lead un­der Batista.

NINTH RACE

DANC­ING STAR­LET moved way up in a big way with the move to the turf last time out, clos­ing strongly to score at 40-1 de­spite rac­ing be­hind a tepid early pace; the re­sult­ing Beyer puts her in the mid­dle of this, but she has room to move up to­day if she gets faster splits up front. GIFT OF GLORY mer­its re­spect off her most re­cent turf Beyer, and she’s an­other who fig­ures to make her pres­ence felt in the late stages; her other grass fig­ures are a lit­tle light but she has yet to run a poor race on the green. UNSTABLENTHEMORNIN failed her dirt test last time but she cer­tainly fig­ures to fare bet­ter to­day with the move back to the grass.

TENTH RACE

ZIP­PING meets the best field he’s faced yet on the main track but he may be up to it, if the ef­fort he turned in two back is any in­di­ca­tion; true, he only beat four horses, and it was over a sloppy strip, but the re­sult­ing Beyer makes him a big threat here; quick enough to lead but also able to rate off the pace and make one run. HY RIVER­SIDE hasn’t been close of late but he also hasn’t got­ten any pace help, and that should change to­day; looms a live long­shot if he gets a quick, con­tested pace up front. MR. JOR­DAN meets much lesser than he did in that last one, and that makes him a re­bound can­di­date; should ap­pre­ci­ate this move into the state­bred ranks.

ELEVENTH RACE

METZ is a dif­fer­ent horse on dirt and turf, so those poor re­cent ef­forts are eas­ily over­looked; his turf fig­ures are bet­ter than most of these, and if he can run to those ef­forts in his third start off the lay­off he has li­cense to win this, likely at a de­cent price. GEAR JAM­MER drops in his first start off the claim, and this new barn wins at a high rate with fresh faces; tac­ti­cal speed a big rea­son for his suc­cess. WEEZA GONE GRAY rarely lasts but he will likely be on a loose lead, and he could get brave if able to back down the frac­tions some.

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