ANAL­Y­SIS

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Keeneland -

BEST BET: RACE 7, MARY CE­LESTE

FIRST RACE

Will­ing to look past the lay­off from WENT WITH THE WIND, who is un­raced since break­ing her maiden at Churchill for a $40,000 tag in June. There aren’t many op­por­tu­ni­ties for 2-year-olds in claim­ing races un­til the fall, and she is not of stakes or even al­lowance qual­ity. Ex­pect­ing her to be ready off a long se­ries of works for a skilled 2-year-old barn. BOLD ES­THER led through­out at Ar­ling­ton in her sec­ond start, and would seem the type to make the tran­si­tion to dirt. Early speed has done well on the main track this meet, though she ranks be­hind the top choice due to a hike from the maiden $20,000 level. TAKE ALETTER MARIA is an­other 2-year-old with speed. She wired maiden $30,000 stock two starts ago be­fore fail­ing to keep pace in an al­lowance and weak­en­ing to be last by a long way. Bet­ter fit in here.

SEC­OND RACE

SNIPER KIT­TEN is the grass class, a 3-year-old stakes win­ner on the lawn who is also the lead­ing money earner among these on turf. Plus, he showed a lik­ing for this course with a win here in the spring. Ready to re­bound from a cou­ple un­placed fin­ishes in his last two starts vs. bet­ter. CEEVEE pos­sesses dan­ger­ous speed and could be left alone in a race that oth­er­wise drew stalk­ing and clos­ing types. May have needed his last race Aug. 26 when sixth at Saratoga af­ter be­ing away since Fe­bru­ary. RERIDE won over this turf course last year when it was soft, but has oth­er­wise given the im­pres­sion of be­ing bet­ter on dirt than turf. Most no­tably, he was a fast win­ner of the Mine That Bird in the spring at Sun­land.

THIRD RACE

WEI­LAND is spot­ted ag­gres­sively by win­ning con­nec­tions fol­low­ing a lack­lus­ter third at In­di­ana Grand af­ter be­ing ac­quired over the sum­mer. A pre­co­cious run­ner, he ac­tu­ally won a slow stake as a maiden in May, only to fol­low that with a fifth in a weak Bash­ford Manor be­fore his fail­ure at In­di­ana. Well drawn as the out­side speed, leav­ing him in po­si­tion to make the front or dial up the pres­sure in the clear. DEANO was slower to get go­ing than WEI­LAND, but has come around over the past month, first with a sec­ond and then with a maiden win at Churchill. Untested vs. win­ners, an ob­vi­ous hur­dle, but he at least he can pass horses, some­thing oth­ers have yet to dis­play. LADY’S WEEK­END fig­ures to be a part of the early scrum, a likely ‘send’ can­di­date af­ter run­ning poorly when be­hind horses in his first two races vs. win­ners. He took a straight maiden race at El­lis a few starts ago on the front end.

FOURTH RACE

Went look­ing for a 2-year-old in this maiden $30,000 claimer that had the po­ten­tial to im­prove, and set­tled on FIRST TO DANCE, a first Lasix re­cip­i­ent. Al­though un­placed in three starts, two of those races came vs. straight maid­ens and last time, as re­flected by the ad­di­tion of Lasix, she may have bled. Tac­ti­cal speed to at least be close to the pace. GATOR VIN­DI­CA­TION is speedy and out­per­formed some of to­day’s ri­vals in fin­ish­ing a dis­tant third at Churchill last out go­ing a mile. Form over her four starts makes her the one to beat. FRANKI D ORO chased the even­tual win­ner be­fore weak­en­ing to fourth when de­but­ing for maiden $20,000 Sept. 21 at Churchill. Though that race came for a cheaper tag, it seemed a de­cent field with horses trained by As­mussen, Casse, and Hart­man run­ning one-two-three.

FIFTH RACE

MO WHEELS UP im­proved sec­ond out with ex­pe­ri­ence, turn­ing in a run­ner-up fin­ish at Churchill on the main track there. It would have been nat­u­ral to re­turn on dirt with her, yet in­stead trainer Joe Sharp in­ter­est­ingly tries the grass...view­ing that as a pos­i­tive sign, per­haps in­dica­tive of more room for de­vel­op­ment. She is a half sis­ter to a cou­ple turf win­ners. HID­DEN FACTS ran sec­ond in her turf de­but at Saratoga. She stalked a fast pace, surged to the lead, and then was nailed late. That race makes her the one to beat. CAP DE

CREUS de­buted with a run­ner-up fin­ish on dirt at Gulf­stream, and has the pedi­gree to im­prove with dis­tance and turf. Take note she is a half to Grade 1 turf win­ner Seek Again, who took the Hol­ly­wood Derby in 2013. Trainer Todd Pletcher has also been on a roll at this meet. HONOR WAY is five for 14 over the past cou­ple years, a record that in­cludes a cou­ple al­lowance tri­umphs at In­di­ana this year. She failed to fire in her lat­est but un­der dif­fi­cult cir­cum­stances, rac­ing over a syn­thetic track and in a stakes race that was won by Presque Isle Masters win­ner Hot­shot Anna. Not the most likely win­ner - MAYBE WICKED is - but her price should be three or four times greater. MAYBE WICKED brings good form and speed to the ta­ble, along with a win­ning trainer/ jockey combo. What she lacks is sim­ply value, sit­ting at 6-5 on the morn­ing line. GO LADY JAY won against sec­ond-level al­lowance com­pany a few races ago at Ar­ling­ton, do­ing so on the Poly, be­fore a fifth and a third on turf, a sur­face on which has yet to win in three starts. She fits bet­ter here on dirt, over which she has won five races, though all at Hawthorne.

SEV­ENTH RACE

MARY CE­LESTE kicked off her ca­reer with a promis­ing sec­ond at Ken­tucky Downs. Though that race came sprint­ing, her pedi­gree sug­gests her fu­ture should come at a route, mak­ing her ap­peal­ing in this 1 1/16-mile turf race. JU­LIA’S READY ral­lied from be­hind slow frac­tions to be fourth at Churchill in a turf route Sep. 20, and now gets blink­ers added for her third race. Mov­ing for­ward. ANDI’S KIT­TEN is brought down to Keeneland by Chad Brown to de­but for Ken and Sarah Ram­sey, con­nec­tions that want to be slug­ging it out for lead­ing owner ev­ery meet here. Brown matched her up with tal­ented work­mates at times in Saratoga breezes over the past few months. In one of two works posted on Xbtv.com, she breezed with News­pa­p­er­ofrecord, pos­si­bly the Breed­ers’ Cup Ju­ve­nile Fil­lies fa­vorite. That said, she could not keep up, fall­ing back a few lengths un­der pres­sure. She fin­ished in front of an­other work­mate un­der a bit of urg­ing in the other Xbtv.com pub­lished drill.

EIGHTH RACE

Tak­ing a price shot with 6-1 come­backer BOBBY’S WICKED ONE, who has per­formed well in all four of his races and starts for a barn that is typ­i­cally dan­ger­ous with lay­off run­ners. Per­haps will fall be­tween the wa­ger­ing cracks af­ter be­ing out of ac­tion since a third at Keeneland Apr. 7. CU­RATE won at first ask­ing with a flashy 94 Beyer for trainer Brad Cox. If re­peated, he would fig­ure to be very tough to beat. The hike from maiden to al­lowance com­pany is de­mand­ing, how­ever. SHARE

THE UP­SIDE has a win and two sec­onds in four starts, all the while show­ing speed. He has not quite met the pub­lic’s ex­pec­ta­tions since break­ing his maiden on de­but - los­ing twice as an odds-on fa­vorite at In­di­ana and once at Churchill at 2-1.

NINTH RACE

SAN ELIJO, re-en­tered af­ter land­ing in a $30,000 claimer on Satur­day with an un­cou­pled sta­ble­mate, is now in a more test­ing spot in this $50,000 claimer. Still view him as a ma­jor player, drop­ping out of al­lowances and hav­ing the speed to be prom­i­nent. COMMANDEERING is the morn­ing-line pub­lic choice at 3-1, and likely goes off lower than that. He looms as a con­tender, based on cur­rent form and win­ning con­nec­tions. 11-1-5-1 record makes ac­cept­ing a short price dif­fi­cult in the win pool and there­fore seems best fo­cused in the twothree spots in the gim­micks. Af­ter go­ing zero for eight to be­gin his ca­reer, RUSHIN TOTHECIRCLE seems to have been a bit more de­ter­mined in his last two since adding nd blink­ers. He broke his maiden by a head July 14 at El­lis on turf and then re­turned af­ter a cou­ple months off to run third in a Churchill dirt al­lowance on dirt. His rel­a­tive lack of early speed is what lands him be­hind the top pair in the se­lec­tions.

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