ANAL­Y­SIS

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Santa Anita -

BEST BET: RACE 8, AVANTI BELLO

FIRST RACE

This claim­ing sprint for 3yos is a good spot to take a shot with OUR TIGER’S BOY, who is poised for a po­ten­tial up­set over fa­vorite COLORMEMONEY. The last time ‘BOY raced at Santa Anita, he won by five lengths, then came back to win again at this class level at Del Mar. Al­though he was dusted two back by ‘MONEY, the most re­cent start by ‘BOY was a cred­itable run­ner-up fin­ish against sim­i­lar. Blink­ers off, out­side post, and a press­ing trip give him a chance at an up­set. COLORMEMONEY is solid; the knock is price. His odds could be low based on his odds-on vic­tory last out in a sim­i­lar race. He won three of his last five, might be the speed of the field, and en­ters without a flaw on ba­sic hand­i­cap­ping. The con­sis­tent DON’T STALK ME has been fresh­ened nearly two months, he fits at this level. Bet­tors try­ing to beat the fa­vorite prob­a­bly should take a long look at both ‘STALK ME, and the top choice. BOB’S ALL IN goes first start off the claim by a high-per­cent f.o.c. sta­ble.

SEC­OND RACE

BIG BAR­REL re­turns to the Santa Anita dirt sur­face on which he fin­ished a solid sec­ond in June. If his sub­se­quent mis­fire in a turf route can be for­given, and if he gets pace to run at, ‘BAR­REL can mow down this mod­est field of Cal-bred maid­ens. SIR ED­DIE, four-time run­ner-up from seven starts, wheels back in seven days af­ter he du­eled and faded to fourth in a down­hill sprint. This is his first start on dirt since his de­but in March, he has more speed than the top choice and is prob­a­bly the one to catch. First-time starter BOUNC­ING AROUND is a sib­ling to the filly Miss Ric­o­chet, run­ner-up by a head at 10-1 in her ca­reer de­but. She fin­ished sec­ond in three of five starts. Come­backer SIDEPOCKET AC­TION has speed, runs well fresh and ap­pears “live” first start since April.

THIRD RACE

IF YOU LIKE IT won 11 races; the re­main­ing run­ners in this low-level claim­ing field com­bined to win 15 races. IF YOU LIKE IT fin­ished sec­ond last out for an $8k claim tag, she was claimed, the claim was voided af­ter she did not pass the post- race ve­teri­nary exam. She drops a notch to $6,250 claim­ing, and fig­ures for a com­fort­able trip po­si­tioned right be­hind the speed. BLONDY’S RE­WARD likely will set the pace break­ing from the rail in this mile route. The 2-for-30 mare usu­ally gives it up late, but prob­a­bly is the one they all will chase. BRIDAL ARCH was claimed for $16k two back, ran poorly last out, and now drops to the bot­tom (un­re­stricted) claim­ing level. LOVELY LINDA has run races that put her in the hunt; she will keep the pace hon­est.

FOURTH RACE

This is a messy turf route for $100k maiden-claim­ing 2yos. The tepid call is DATA HAWK, run­ner-up with a grind­ing rally last out in a MSW turf route at Golden Gate Fields. His race looks bet­ter on pa­per than it looks on video, but at least he showed some fin­ish. FORT­NITE DANCE fin­ished fourth last out af­ter press­ing the pace in a MSW turf route at Del Mar. The pace was slow, yet he still tired. Per­haps he should have stuck around longer. On the other hand, that was his first route, he could im­prove. SUR­PRISE FASH­ION stretches out, switches to turf and faces eas­ier af­ter two dirt sprints against bet­ter. DARK PRINCE is speed, first-time turf. The truth is, this race is in­scrutable.

FIFTH RACE

If she runs back to her highly rated de­but vic­tory in July at Del Mar, CHAS­ING YES­TER­DAY will be tough to beat in this sprint stakes for 2yo fil­lies. Based on re­cent works, the Tapit sib­ling to Amer­i­can Pharoah will re­turn to form af­ter she bombed at Saratoga. She did not es­tab­lish po­si­tion, was un­com­fort­able rac­ing be­hind horses, and failed to rally. Chalk it up to in­ex­pe­ri­ence. She has good re­cent works, an out­side post in the field of five, and is sim­ply the fastest in the field based on her de­but. IT’ S JUST AN IL­LU­SION is quick, wheel­ing back on short no­tice (two weeks) af­ter a sharp de­but vic­tory. She popped the gate, sped an open­ing quar­ter-mile in a quick :21.78 and was gone. She might be the speed of the speed. Come catch

her. Four of the five en­trants are front-run­ners. The only“closer” is AND YOU SHALL RE­CEIVE, who over­came a slow start to win her de­but from off the pace last month at Los Alami­tos. If the pace falls apart, ‘RE­CEIVE has a look at an off-the-pace up­set. MAR­RAZANO won by five lengths last out; she changed train­ers since. WATCH ME BURN seems to be in tough, and yet she is the only twotime win­ner in the field.

SIXTH RACE

WEST­WOOD’S WIZ­ARD won his only start on this down­hill course in 2017, he faced bet­ter com­pany this year and drops to $35k claim­ing N3L. This is his first start since late Au­gust, he runs well fresh. CATS BLAME wheels back in two weeks and drops in class af­ter a de­cent fifth in a N1X. He hit traf­fic cross­ing the dirt, steadied, but fin­ished well to miss by only four. He faces eas­ier this time, and won twice on the hill early this year. Based on his fig­ures, he will be among the fa­vorites. The knock is that his clos­ing style is against the early-sea­son course pro­file. Eight of the first 10 turf sprints were won by horses po­si­tioned first or sec­ond. Still must con­sider CATS BLAME as a con­tender. KING CAUSE drops to claim­ing for the first time, while switch­ing to turf for the first time. He will roll late. IN­VA­SION LOOM­ING, maiden-50 win­ner on the hill in spring, drops from the same fast-pace N1X that CATS BLAME ex­its. The like­li­hood of an eas­ier pace gives IN­VA­SION LOOM­ING a look.

SEV­ENTH RACE

First-time starter SOLD IT de­buts with solid work­outs for Doug O’Neill in­clud­ing a three-fur­long blowout last week that sug­gests the gray daugh­ter of The Fac­tor is ready to roll in this MSW for 2yo fil­lies. TIZ A SHARPIE ran well in her third-place de­but. Void of speed, she trailed the field, and fin­ished with run for a dis­tant third be­hind Anoakia starter Mar­razano (race 5). It was a promis­ing de­but by ‘SHARPIE, though she might want longer than this six and one-half fur­long race. She did not pro­duce any speed in her sprint de­but, and she was sired by Tiznow. She will rally late, and can be fol­lowed when she goes long. SHOW HOST­ESS also has worked well for her de­but. Her Sept. 23 gate work looked sharp vis­ually on XBTV.

EIGHTH RACE

Vet­eran win ma­chine AVANTI BELLO is the most prob­a­ble win­ner on the card. His last two starts were su­per in­clud­ing a run­ner-up fin­ish last out in which he set a fast pace and fin­ished more than three lengths clear of third. He drops in class from $16k claim­ing and/or starter races to face Cal­breds while en­tered for the op­tional $16k claim tag. ‘BELLO also is re­united with Flavien Prat, who has rid­den him seven times in dirt routes: four wins, two sec­onds, one third. CARVILLE is a pace­set­ter can­di­date, fresh­ened since late Au­gust and ex­pected to ei­ther set or press the pace. Is he fast enough? The past six months, win­ning Beyer Fig­ures for this class level (Cal­bred N1X, long on dirt), ranged from 80 to 91. CARVILLE typ­i­cally earns num­bers in the low 80s. Yes, he is fast enough on num­bers. CAL­I­FOR­NIA JOUR­NEY tries dirt for the first time in the eighth start of his ca­reer, while adding blink­ers. His best ef­forts this spring on turf put him in the hunt. His dirt work­outs have been sharp; he is drawn out­side where he can race in the clear, free from kick­back.

NINTH RACE

A deep N2X down­hill turf sprint ends the week; 3yo CALEXMAN gets the call first against older. Both starts on the hill against his own age group were solid (win, sec­ond), he has tac­ti­cal speed to be for­wardly placed over this speed-friendly lay­out. CALEXMAN has been nd fresh­ened two months since fin­ish­ing third in the Ocean­side and La Jolla in sum­mer at Del Mar. His trainer Vladimir Cerin won with four of his last six down­hill sprint­ers re­turn­ing from lay­offs of 45 days or more. FLIP THE COIN JAN, an­other 3yo, moves up in class to N2X af­ter a fast-pace wire job on this course in a N1X. He looks like the speed of the field, and a threat to lead gate to wire. ERIC THE TRO­JAN, run­ner-up both re­cent starts at this level at Del Mar, will rally late. He won on this course in spring. The chal­lenge is the hill­side fa­vored front-run­ners and pressers the first two weeks of the sea­son. If the speed-friendly pro­file con­tin­ues this week, ‘TRO­JAN would be up against it.

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