ANAL­Y­SIS

Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition - - Aqueduct -

BEST BET: RACE 3, TILL THEN

FIRST RACE

QUIET OUT EAST made a run to con­tention in his sec­ond start but couldn’t get up over a fron­trun­ning win­ner in an ef­fort that was im­proved from his de­but at Saratoga; not much to this field, un­less one of the new faces can run, so he may not have to do much bet­ter to break through. SOUTH­ERN BRI­GADE went evenly af­ter a good trip and set­tled for a share of 2nd when stretched out two starts back; had a big ex­cuse last time when ap­pear­ing to clip heels on the back­stretch and al­most un­seat­ing his rider. WORTH A SHOT de­but­ing from a good post in a race where he can be dan­ger­ous as a full to the Grade 1 win­ning turf horse Voodoo Song, who also races for th­ese con­nec­tions; trainer just 1 for her last 25 de­but­ing in turf routes ($0.20 ROI). SCOTTY BROWN had no real ex­cuse get­ting run down off a loose lead last time but he has speed in a weak field, which may be enough.

SEC­OND RACE

SOUTH­EAST closed into a good setup to win two starts back and he ran equally well last time when bumped while look­ing for room in the stretch, be­fore al­ter­ing to the in­side and putting in a run that came up short; fits well here if he can just keep it go­ing. FE­LIX IN FABULA has back races that would crush this field but he did not run well while dropped off the claim last time; even if you want to give him the slop ex­cuse for that one, he is drop­ping again for this and is now en­tered for half of what he was taken for just two starts back. MERGER OF BANKS fi­nally broke through off the claim for Rudy at Saratoga but he didn’t im­prove from his prior form in win­ning that race and he has not been com­pet­i­tive in two starts since; did chase a solid pace last time but he wasn’t far ahead of SOUTH­EAST and was no match for that one in the stretch.

THIRD RACE

TILL THEN made a nice ap­pear­ance pre-race lead­ing into his de­but be­fore go­ing out to flash strong speed on a good pace, only to be closed down late by U S Navy Cross, who re­turned to fin­ish 4th in a fast run­ning of the Nashua last week­end; fig­ures very tough with that race be­hind him as he faces a field full of first time starters. MINE THE COIN a Speight­stown colt out of a sis­ter to Breed­ers’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint win­ner Judy the Beauty who brought $300k as a year­ling; de­buts over a tough dis­tance from the rail but goes for a trainer who is highly un­der­rated with horses like this (past three years, 2yo first time starter, dirt, sprint: 9 for 27, 33%, $6.72 ROI). HAIKAL a half-brother to Taka­ful, a fast Grade1-win­ning sprinter who raced for th­ese con­nec­tions re­cently and who won his late-sea­son de­but as a 2yo by eight lengths with a 92 Beyer.

FOURTH RACE

SPORT took a while to break his maiden and re­quired a class drop to do it, but he was un­lucky more than once along the way and has run well enough in his two starts since break­ing through vs. tougher horses; drops back in for a tag over a dis­tance he can han­dle. OVERNIGHT SUC­CESS broke his maiden with some class re­lief two starts back then stum­bled at the start and raced wide be­fore fail­ing to fire be­hind a front-run­ning win­ner vs. al­lowance horses; drops for trainer off to a good start at the meet. POCKET PLAYER a closer who will need some pace and he may also ap­pre­ci­ate get­ting some firmer ground to run over af­ter fail­ing to get in­volved last time; came up just short at this level two back at a price.

FIFTH RACE

MOTAGALLY de­buted in a race that has come back strong with Vekoma re­turn­ing to win the Grade 3 Nashua with a 99 Beyer and run­nerup Epic Dreamer win­ning his next start in hand with an 81; was out­paced early over that shorter trip be­fore mak­ing a wide run around the turn and rac­ing on gamely to just miss 4th at the end. TACITUS de­buted in a race that fea­tured a timer mal­func­tion but he ran well there while tak­ing a shot at the even­tual win­ner on the lead through the

turn be­fore get­ting turned away and then out­fin­ished late for the plac­ings; well-bred colt has no dis­tance ques­tions to an­swer and is the horse to beat off that first run. ERLICH chased gamely in the slop first time out sprint­ing, then stretched out in a solid race at Keeneland last time; has some speed to put into play.

SIXTH RACE

AB­SEN­TEE was a game win­ner on de­but while los­ing some po­si­tion in or­der to avoid the open rail at Parx in the stretch then proved to be no match for the tal­ented Max­imus Mis­chief in a fast race last time; switches to turf with some pedi­gree for a dan­ger­ous trainer. GINS AND TINS re­turns from a short lay­off af­ter tak­ing a tough beat in the Skid­more at Saratoga, a race where he may have been best on a fast pace; lone at­tempt over this dis­tance came in his sec­ond ca­reer start where he chased a fast pace be­fore weak­en­ing late. BACKTOHISROOTS made his turf de­but in the Fu­tu­rity last month and fin­ished gamely into a col­laps­ing pace to be sec­ond-best to Un­cle Benny, who fin­ished 2nd in the Breed­ers’ Cup Ju­ve­nile Turf last week­end; good fit in this spot off that ef­fort.

SEV­ENTH RACE

CON­SEN­SUS THINK­ING went a dis­tance too far and was on a dead rail when dropped in for $40k at Saratoga and im­proved sig­nif­i­cantly off the claim when turned back for his next start, even with a per­fect trip fac­tored in; looks to bounce back af­ter fail­ing to fire in his first start at this level most re­cently. STRONG SIDE an in­fre­quent win­ner but he has held his form in his first two starts for this trainer and this is a bet­ter dis­tance for him; posted both ca­reer wins vs. weaker but has shown that he fits well at this level. MAL­IBU AC­TION has so far shown that he is more ef­fi­cient in the claim­ing ranks but he has run his race in NY and steps up off a win for a trainer who has won with four straight en­trants on this cir­cuit, three of them at big prices.

EIGHTH RACE

BLACK­TYPE en­ters this race in form for the third straight year and while he came up short in his first two at­tempts, he ran well both times; has wired the field in his last two starts but he doesn’t need the lead to be ef­fec­tive and he han­dles give in the ground. PRO­JECTED keeps show­ing up with­out win­ning, which was the case again last time where he ap­peared to get to long­shot win­ner Doc­tor Mounty late be­fore fail­ing to get up; re­unites with Irad who took him back and let him make one run in the Dan­gers Hour over course and dis­tance ear­lier this year, and that may be his best style.

BRICKS AND MOR­TAR re­turn­ing from a long lay­off at a short price on the ML, but he showed form as a 3yo that sug­gests that he has the po­ten­tial to be bet­ter than th­ese horses down the line; not sure I’d take him as the fa­vorite but it would be no sur­prise to find him re­turn­ing with a strong ef­fort.

NINTH RACE

Warn­ing signs are there for TAKE­OFF who is drop­ping for his re­turn from a long lay­off af­ter be­ing claimed from a turf race last De­cem­ber; dirt form sug­gests that he is bet­ter than th­ese horses by quite a bit if he can still run. SPA JAZZ eas­ily han­dled a group of turf horses on the main track two starts back then re­turned to grass to no avail last time; by a sire who does not get turf horses so this may be his sur­face and he is lightly-raced enough to keep an eye on at this level. THE CHAMO was vanned off three starts back at Saratoga but he has run two com­pet­i­tive races since then, in­clud­ing that last one when prov­ing to be no match for a win­ner who put up an 81 Beyer on a big class drop.

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