San Diego State vs. Houston
WHY IT WILL HAPPEN: Nevada was the top seed in the Mountain West tournament — until it met the buzz-saw that is San Diego State. The Aztecs went up by 30 at halftime. Winners of nine in a row, San Diego State is finally healthy, looking like the team that beat Gonzaga in December. Houston has also been hot, winning five in a row before a one-point loss to Cincinnati in the American Athletic Conference title game. But the Aztecs have more options offensively, with four players averaging double figures in scoring.
WHY IT MIGHT NOT: San Diego State is 1-4 in games decided by four points or fewer and has lost five games this season when leading in the final five minutes.
X FACTOR: Trey Kell missed four games in late January and early February, but the Aztecs’ spark plug is back and better than ever. The senior guard is averaging 18 points,
4.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists in his last four games.