Week 3: Who you picking Kansas City or Baltimore?
We rebounded like Bam Adebayo in Week 2, niftying a 14-2 mark straight-up and an I'll-take-it 9-7 against the evil betting line.
That erased the taste of a sluggish opening week and gives us some tailwind as we dig into our 30th season of NFL picks in the Miami Herald.the comeback featured a direct hit on our Upset of the Week with Raiders stunning Saints on Monday night (“Aaawwwk!”). Also had three other dogs-withpoints in Jags covering at Titans, Broncos doing the same at Steelers, and Bengals covering at Browns. Our only two outright misses: Overestimating the Vikings and Eagles, who both kicked us in the groin with abysmal efforts. Overall, a big week. Now let's keep the mo' going! (Note: Thursday night pick was At Jaguars (-3) over Dolphins, 30-24.)
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Week 2: 14-2, .875 overall; 9-7, .563 vs. spread.
Season: 22-10, .688 overall; 15-16-1, .484 vs. spread.
Final 2019: 169-86-1, .663 overall; 129-120-7, .518 vs. spread.
Final 2018: 179-75-2, .705 overall; 145-104-7, .582 vs. spread.
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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 3 PICKS
GAME OF THE WEEK CHIEFS (2-0) at
RAVENS (2-0)
Line: BAL by 3 1/2.
Cote's pick: BAL 31-27. TV: 5:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN.
The most vivid imagination could hardly build a better Game of the Week, or an easier sell for ESPN'S Monday night stage.
This is a quite-likely
AFC Championship
Game preview. These are the two best teams in the NFL, and the order is like choosing between filet mignon and lobster. These also are the two most exciting quarterbacks, with reigning league MVP
Lamar Jackson hosting reigning champion and Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes.
The NFL has set twoweek records for most TDS scored (186), most points (1,611) and most QBS with 100-plus ratings (13) _ and this matchup leads that fireworks charge. There are two great offenses here but only one elite defense. The Ravens' pass D will test Mahomes more so than the Chiefs will bother Jackson. K.C. catches a break by Baltimore admitting no fans to games, but Crows' edge on defense still tips the pick. ___
UPSET OF THE WEEK PACKERS (2-0) at SAINTS (1-1)
Line: NO by 3.
Cote's pick: GB 34-31. TV: 8:20 p.m., NBC. “AAAWWWK!” bellows the Upset Bird. “Aaron Raawwk!” Now this is a matchup worthy of Sunday's prime-time stage. In the latest installment of Old G.O.A.T.S Throwing, Aaron Raawwk I mean Rodgers is looking a lot better than Drew Brees thus far. And as for who will have his hobbled top receiver back, Packer Davante Adams seems much likelier to play than Saint Michael Thomas. N'awlins may prove the better team over the long haul, but based on early form it's the Gee
Bees. With both defenses comparably stout, solid edge to Rodgers with the ball. “Seems weird to go against Drew Braawwk at home,” notes U-bird. “But you can't but be impressed so far by Green Baaawwwk!”
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THE REST OF WEEK 3: At Falcons (0-2, -3) over Bears (2-0), 31-23: Chitown one of 11 2-0 teams, most in league since 2008, but its unbeaten days are numbered. Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley and ‘Lanta have too much offense (64 points) to stay winless. Dirty Birds' late collapse against Dallas last week stings, but here comes the salve. Bears a big edge on defense; still, Mitch Trubisky won't outscore Ryan.
Rams (2-0, +2 1/2) over At Bills (2-0), 28-24: Upset! (“Aawwk!”). One of only two matchups of 2-0 teams finds both offenses percolating, but I'm liking Rams' D a but more right now. Jalen Ramsey on Stefon Diggs won't afford Josh Allen the clean sailing he enjoyed against Miami. West Coast teams playing on East Coast are 20-4 since start of last season. Ride it.
At Browns (1-1, -7) over Washington (1-1), 23-13: Sometimes a particular mismatch grabs the prognosticatory wheel and steers a pick. Here's one: Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt vs. Washington's run defense. Not very impressed yet by Dwayne Haskins, either. WAS tempts getting as full touch, but I would resist.
At Vikings (0-2, +2 1/2) over Titans (2-0), 27-23: Upset! (“Aawwk!”). This pick has the potential to bite me in the (bleep), but I'm not writing off the disappointing Vikes just yet. Am hunching a riseup effort by Minny's lousyso-far defense. Mostly, thinking Dalvin Cook will spin big numbers against a Titans run-d allowing 136 yards per game to take some heat off Kirk (Four Picks) Cousins.
At Patriots (1-1, -6) over Raiders (2-0), 30
20: Derek Carr has two top-tier weapons in RB Josh Jacobs (questionable with hip issue) and TE
Darren Waller, as we saw in Vegas' big newstadium-christening win over N'awlins Monday night (an upset I called, BTW). Now we find out if the Raiders are for real, against Bill Belichick, in a stadium where NE is on a 17-3 home run. I'm sort of trusting Cam Newton to be pretty great.
49ers (1-1, -3 1/2) At Giants (0-2), 19-6: Welcome to the infirmary. It's the Hurtin' Bowl.
Big Blue lost RB Saquon Barkley for the season. Niners lost defensive cogs Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas for the year, and Nick Mullens is “likely” to start at QB for hobbled Jimmy Garoppolo. Plus Frans TE George Kittle is iffy. As decimated as SF is, Biggies losing Barkley feels like the knockout punch.
At Eagles (0-2, -4 1/2) over Bengals (0-2), 27-23: Cincy and rookie Joe Burrow have been better than Carson Wentz and Philly through each team's winless start, and an outright upset here would not shock. Eagles defense has been saaad. But I'm hunching that an ain'tdead-yet performance by Wentz carries the day. Gals with points, though.
At Steelers (2-0, -4) over Texans (0-2), 24-17: Opening with Chiefs/ Ravens has been a nightmare for Houston, and it stays tough with Pittsburgh, of the balanced attack and tough-as-always D. Poor Deshaun Watson will have the best 0-3 team around. Sidelight: Watt Bowl, with Houston's J.J. facing Steelers lil' bro T.J.
At Colts (1-1, -11) over Jets (0-2), 24-0: Adam Gase's Grounded Planes are on the tarmac, tires flat, wings on fire. The NYJ offense looks especially inept, and Indy's defense is good. It'll take an appearance by Bad Philip Rivers (two or three turnovers) to give Jets any sort of prayer here.
At Chargers (1-1, -6
1/2) over Panthers (0-2), 23-17: Battle of the bad weeks. Carolina: Loses offensive hub and fantasy god Christian Mccaffrey for a while to a high ankle sprain. LAC: Loses QB Tyrod Taylor for a while when a team doctor giving him a pain-killing injection accidentally punctures his lung. Big loser: Carolina. Chargers have Justin Herbert. Cats have nobody to replace Mccaffrey. Still, bet line feels fat.
Buccaneers (1-1, -6) over At Broncos (0-2), 24-20: Flying to Colorado has not been kind to Tom
Brady. He is 3-7 at Mile High. This time, though, the home crowd will be limited to around 6,000, and the Broncos will see sub Jeff Driskel starting at QB for Drew Lock (shoulder). Brady's arrival changes a lot, but still worth noting Bucs have lost 20 of past 27 on road, and Denver has won four straight in series. Give us Stallions with points.
At Cardinals (2-0, -6) over Lions (0-2), 34-23: Arizona's Kyler Murray and Deandre Hopkinsled offense is good with an upside of explosive. Detroit has the worst run defense in the NFL and its secondary is banged up, too. You do the math. It will take a best-of performance by Mathew Stafford to keep it close.
At Seahawks (2-0, -5) over Cowboys (1-1), 34-27: Yes, Patrick Mahomes vs. Lamar Jackson tops the Week 3 QB marquee. But Russell Wilson vs. Dak Prescott is one hell of an opening act. Wilson (nine TDS) has been best player in NFL through two weeks. Prescott's offense seems unstoppable at times, but Dallas' D was shredded by Matt Ryan last week. Cowboys have lost four of past five on road. Trust Russ. Watch him cook.