Could Judge’s injury deter Harper from DC contest this year?

TAMPA — By hinting that taking a million swings at last year’s Home Run Derby could have led to his shoulder injury or exacerbated an existing condition, Aaron Judge has essentially added a new wrinkle to the old debate about whether participating can hurt a player’s second-half performance?

That is, can participating cause injury?

And will Judge’s apparent decision not to defend his HR Derby title cause other players to decline invitations?

It’s hard to conclude Judge’s injury is anything more than an isolated incident, since there is basically zero history of other injuries — that we know of, anyway — since the Derby became part of the All-Star festivities in 1985.

However, I do think the participants take way too many swings on Derby day, especially those who advance beyond the first round. In addition to the Derby itself, they partake in All-Star batting practice hours beforehand and then hone their swings in the indoor cages before every round.

I’ve always thought the event was way too long, because even the exhilaration of watching Judge launch moon shots gets tedious when the Derby is closing in on the two-hour mark.

But ESPN gets big ratings for the Derby so it stretches the event to maximize advertising dollars, and Major League Baseball isn’t about to tell one of its broadcast partners to shorten the time frame, even if it would be better for the players and the TV audience as well.

In any case, I doubt that Judge’s injury, which almost surely was related to his well-documented second-half slump, or his reluctance to participate will have significant influence on other players.

As it is, some players love it and some worry about it messing with their swing. But I do think it will be fascinating to see how Bryce Harper handles the pressure to participate in the Derby at the All-Star Game in Washington, D.C. this July.

The Nationals’ star slugger hasn’t taken part since 2013 at Citi Field, but he was quoted at last year’s AllStar festivities saying he’d definitely do it in his home ballpark.

Still, I could see him rethinking that decision. Already Harper has dealt with a variety of injuries, including the presumed shoulder injury that baseball people believe played a major role in his subpar season in 2016.

Between the injuries, his naturally violent swing, and the historic payday awaiting him in free agency next winter, would he take any unnecessary chances?

Injury possibility aside, some players worry about a Derby jinx, which may or may not be a real thing. Alex Rodriguez for years insisted there were consequences, explaining in 2008, when he didn’t take part at Yankee Stadium, that “it sets your swing back at least three weeks.”

Except, as someone looked up at the time, when A-Rod last took part in the event, in 2002, he hit four home runs in his first four games after the All-Star break, and went on to hit 30 in the second half of that season.

On the other hand, some players have taken some rather famous nosedives, from Bobby Abreu in 2005 to David Wright in 2006 to Todd Frazier, who in 2015 with the Reds hit 25 home runs before the break and only 10 after winning the Derby in Cincinnati.

On the other hand, there are Derby champs over the last 10 years such as Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and Robinson Cano who hit more home runs per at-bat in the second half and put up better overall numbers.

A few publications have done studies looking at years of participation, and while there is evidence that overall numbers are slightly down in the second half, they say those numbers become insignificant when other factors are included, notably the inevitable regression for players in the Derby who had a hot first half.

In any case, I thought Giancarlo Stanton had an interesting take. After last year’s Derby he had a hot second half, hitting 33 home runs in 73 games, which he believes was partly the result of dramatically closing his stance in June, and said he’ll decide on this year’s Derby when he sees how his body feels and how he’s swinging the bat at the time.

Stanton said he doesn’t think his swing has been affected in the past by the Derby but did admit he takes precautions against it.

“You do try to lift (the ball) a little more,” he said, “so I advise to go in the cage right after you’re done. Go iron out your swing so that you don’t lose it for a couple of days.”

And then there was Reggie Jackson. He pre-dated the All-Star Derby, but he said MLB used to have team-vs.-team home run contests on Sundays before games, and in typical Mr. October fashion, he said “I don’t

think I ever lost one.”

More to the point, he laughed when I asked if it ever affected his swing.

“I was like Mickey Mantle,” he said. “I went to the plate trying to hit a home run every time, anyway.”

Judge obviously feels differently, and the Yankees are probably happy he doesn’t want to do it again, even if GM Brian Cashman explained that he couldn’t comment “because it’s a league-sanctioned event.”

Bottom line, Judge probably thinks the Derby played some role in his second-half slump, even if it was just aggravating the shoulder with all those swings. And if he thinks that way he shouldn’t do it. It doesn’t mean others will necessarily follow his lead. One way or another, though, Harper

will be a good test case.

THERE’S A CATCH

The Mets’ willingness to stay with Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki as their catchers was already going to come under heavy scrutiny this season. But Jonathan Lucroy’s one-year contract with the A’s sets up quite a second-guess scenario for Sandy Alderson. Lucroy is coming off a poor offensive season with the Rangers, but he’s only 31 and, more importantly, he is considered a strong receiver and pitch-caller. Meanwhile, scouts and even Mets’ people have questioned d’Arnaud’s ability to take charge and get the most out of the pitchers. One criticism, in particular, has been that he doesn’t get them to pitch inside enough. Maybe that will change under new pitching coach Dave Eiland, known for insisting pitchers work inside. The Mets are counting on d’Arnaud still reaching what they see as his offensive potential. But some of that is based on his strong finish last season: in September he hit six home runs and put up a .999 OPS.

Of course, the season was in tatters by then. He needs to do it when it matters.

HE’S HUMAN AFTER ALL

The perception is that Mickey Callaway will be much more of an analytics-oriented manager than Terry Collins, as decreed by Alderson.

As part of an upcoming Q&A I did with the Mets’ manager for our season-preview section, Callaway insisted the human element will dictate much of his decision-making.

“Let’s say you just ran your team based on the numbers,” he said. “The impact would be incremental, not humongous. But the impact of players not feeling comfortable where they’re hitting in the lineup, or when they’re pitching, is very big.

“If I had to say we’re going to lean one way or the other, we’d probably lean against analytics at that point. Not that we’re going to ignore it, but we have to have guys comfortable and confident, things like that.

“You can have the best mechanics in the world and have no confidence, and be terrible. On the other hand, you can have the most confidence in the world and the worst mechanics, and you’re going to pitch good. That’s just a fact. That’s how people work.

“You have to communicate with players. If the analytic numbers say you have to overshift against this guy, but the pitcher sees the whole left side of the infield open and he doesn’t feel comfortable, and he lacks conviction in the pitch he’s about to make, you can throw those analytics out the window because they don’t count anymore.”

THE BOOK ON ‘BABIES’

Yankee fans should love Bryan Hoch’s new book, “The Baby Bombers: The Inside Story of the Next Yankee Dynasty,” which was released a few days ago.

Hoch, MLB.com’s Yankee beat writer, offers details on the deals Cashman made to rebuild on the fly, but I think fans will especially enjoy well-reported background stories on the likes of Judge, Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird and others: how they developed as young players and were then discovered in one way or another by the Yankees.

The players are all well known by now, but Hoch offers some fresh perspective to their stories.