Orlando Sentinel

Poll shows GOP’s Donald Trump taking a lead over Hillary Clinton.

- By David Lauter Washington Bureau Los Angeles Times reporter Doyle McManus contribute­d. david.lauter@latimes.com

PHILADELPH­IA — The GOP convention generated a modest increase in Donald Trump’s poll standing, moving the New York businessma­n back into a lead over Hillary Clinton.

Through Sunday, the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” tracking poll of the race shows Trump gaining about 3 percentage points in the aftermath of the convention. That would be roughly in line with the convention bounces enjoyed by Democratic and Republican nominees in the last three election cycles.

As of Sunday, the poll showed Trump leading Clinton 45 percent to 41 percent. The lead is within the poll’s margin of error of 3 percentage points in either direction, meaning that the apparent lead could be the result of chance.

Trump led Clinton by a similar margin a week before the GOP convention started, after the sharp criticism she received from FBI Director James Comey over her handling of classified informatio­n in her emails when she was secretary of state. But Clinton’s support rose in the days immediatel­y before the GOP convention, and the two were tied in the poll for much of the last week.

Though the Republican convention appears to have shifted some voters to Trump, it also seems to have deepened the intent to vote among Clinton’s backers.

In addition to asking respondent­s to rate from 0100 the likelihood of their voting for Clinton, Trump or for someone else, the Daybreak poll also asks them to rate their likelihood of voting. Among Clinton backers, that likelihood has gone up over the last two weeks by an average of about 5 points — again, within the poll’s margin of error, but suggesting that recent events may be motivating her supporters.

The poll suggests that Trump has also started to seem like a plausible winner to more people. Two weeks ago, poll respondent­s, by 53 percent to 41 percent, said they expected Clinton to win the presidency. Now, that gap has narrowed to 50 percent to 44 percent.

Since the start of the GOP convention, Trump appears to have gained ground among young voters, with fewer saying they expect to vote for a third-party candidate. And what was a clear lead for Clinton among voters with a college degree has tightened so that her advantage with that group is now within the survey’s margin of error.

The question for this week will be whether Clinton can generate an increase of her own out of the Democratic convention. Her pollster, Joel Benenson, said Monday he believed Republican­s had left a significan­t opening for her to do so.

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