Steady in Germany
Merkel’s likely re-election is a helpful sign
In Germany’s parliamentary elections Sept. 24, Chancellor Angela Merkel will be seeking her fourth term. The German political party spectrum contains everything from far right, in the form of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, to the Greens and the Free Democrats on the left. For the past four years, the country of 80 million has been governed by a coalition of Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union with its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, and the Social Democratic Party.
Ms. Merkel, from the old communist German Democratic Republic, has run the show. Based on her personality and approach, and Germany’s prosperity, Ms. Merkel and Germany have emerged as the leaders of what could still be called the Western world in terms of democracy and principles. France has taken an iconoclastic approach to its traditional parties, the United Kingdom is in disarray with Brexit and trying to figure out its future, and the United States’ election of Donald Trump has upended the traditional trans-Atlantic alliance.
Germany can be said to be doing quite well, economically and politically. Unemployment has dropped from 11.2 percent when she became chancellor in 2005 to 3.8 percent today. Wages continue to rise. Germany shows a budget surplus of $31 billion. Its economic record has been marred only by the falsified vehicle emissions tests scandals.
On the foreign affairs side, Germany has pursued a generally generous approach to refugees and immigration, reflecting in part its continuing need for labor. It is still seeking to meet the 2 percent of GDP expenditure on defense for NATO, currently standing at 1.2 percent. It has troops in Afghanistan and NATO-member Lithuania and peacekeeping forces in Mali in Africa.
It considers the negotiations to reach the Iran agreement on nuclear weapons a model, and Ms. Merkel has now proposed comparable negotiations as an approach to the North Korea problem, expressing German willingness to play “a very active role.” She has already approached Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on the subject, with Russian President Vladimir Putin next on her list. In taking this initiative, she has taken leadership on the issue away from the United States, presenting Germany as an interlocutor more acceptable to North Korea than the United States is.
Noting as prelude the surprise elections of Mr. Trump and Emmanuel Macron in France, and the British vote against continued membership in the European Union, it is probably safe nonetheless to assume that the CDU and the CSU, with Ms. Merkel in the lead, will win the Sept. 24 elections. Given her steady hand, that should be seen as a good thing, for Germany, Europe, the United States and the world.