ALABAMA over Fresno St by 38
Nick Saban reloads in Tuscaloosa once again… so what’s new? A new offensive coordinator, for one thing. And while it’s hard to judge Brian Daboll after one game against an extremely talented FSU defense, there were some familiar themes. Jalen Hurts averaged only 5.3 yards per pass attempt despite hitting Calvin Ridley for a 53-yard touchdown, and no other wide receiver caught a pass. Also, the Crimson Tide went 3-for-16 on third down. Yes, they were beatable yet somehow prevailed over the Seminoles. Keep in mind that Bama is just as non-conference chalk 28 or more point and Saban is just 5-10 ATS in home openers, including
off a win. In Fresno, Jeff Tedford’s debut for the Bulldogs was a 66-0 whitewashing of Incarnate Word, so it’s tough to learn anything from that. Fresno State is 1-5 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games (this is the first of a consecutive murderer’s row of road tilts for the Bulldogs as they travel to Washington next week). Still, there is this interesting stat: Tedford is an impressive 14-6 ATS as a dog of 6 or more points in his career, including off a win. Let’s just call this a stayaway because of the possible Bama letdown or the more likely possibility that the Nictator will refrain from revealing too much before the SEC schedule kicks in.