ALABAMA over Fresno St by 38

Playbook Football (Midweek Alert) - - 2-minute Handicap -

Nick Sa­ban reloads in Tuscaloosa once again… so what’s new? A new of­fen­sive co­or­di­na­tor, for one thing. And while it’s hard to judge Brian Daboll after one game against an ex­tremely tal­ented FSU de­fense, there were some fa­mil­iar themes. Jalen Hurts av­er­aged only 5.3 yards per pass at­tempt de­spite hit­ting Calvin Ri­d­ley for a 53-yard touch­down, and no other wide re­ceiver caught a pass. Also, the Crim­son Tide went 3-for-16 on third down. Yes, they were beat­able yet some­how pre­vailed over the Semi­noles. Keep in mind that Bama is just as non-con­fer­ence chalk 28 or more point and Sa­ban is just 5-10 ATS in home open­ers, in­clud­ing

off a win. In Fresno, Jeff Ted­ford’s de­but for the Bull­dogs was a 66-0 white­wash­ing of In­car­nate Word, so it’s tough to learn any­thing from that. Fresno State is 1-5 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games (this is the first of a con­sec­u­tive mur­derer’s row of road tilts for the Bull­dogs as they travel to Wash­ing­ton next week). Still, there is this in­ter­est­ing stat: Ted­ford is an im­pres­sive 14-6 ATS as a dog of 6 or more points in his ca­reer, in­clud­ing off a win. Let’s just call this a stay­away be­cause of the pos­si­ble Bama let­down or the more likely pos­si­bil­ity that the Nic­ta­tor will re­frain from re­veal­ing too much be­fore the SEC sched­ule kicks in.

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