TCU over West Virginia by 18
Despite a 3-0 start, Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs weren’t getting much love from the polls – until last Saturday’s surprisingly easy win over Oklahomas State vaulted TCU into the No. 8 spot this week (AP). Like Don Henley sang, “Everything is different now” – and Patterson is hell bent on avenging last season’s 4-8 effort, especially against foes that pounded nails into their coffin (lost to WVU, 34-10). In fact, Boss Frog owns a moneymaking 20-7 ATS mark with conference revenge versus winning foes, including 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points. West Virginia has looked equal to or better than its current No. 23 ranking, bouncing back from a hard-fought, season-opening loss to Virginia Tech to win three straight games by an average of 33.7 PPG. In truth, however, that trio of wins came against East Carolina, FCS foe Delaware State and Kansas, teams that have combined for a 2-10 SU and 3-6 ATS start in 2017. Further investigation turns up WVU’s awful 1-8 ATS performance with rest when taking on a Big 12 foe and 1-4 ATS mark as a double-digit conference underdog. Meanwhile, the horned ones make the most of a week off, logging an outstanding 13-2 ATS record when rested and ready. Even more disturbing for the Hillbillies is a defense that’s getting scorched for 452 YPG – 128 more than TCU. The always informative MIDWEEK ALERT seals the deal, noting that the Froggies have held all four foes to season-low yards this year. Yes, they are for real… lay it if you play it.