USF over Cincin­nati by 24

Playbook Football (Midweek Alert) - - 5 Octoberama Lts Football Special! -

Char­lie Strong should thank his lucky stars for be­ing chased out of a bad head coach­ing sit­u­a­tion at Texas and some­how land­ing in the per­fect spot at South Florida. It helps when you in­herit a team that went 11-2 the pre­vi­ous cam­paign and you get to coach the best col­lege foot­ball quar­ter­back you’ve never heard of, dual-threat Quin­ton Flow­ers. How good is Flow­ers? His 2,989 ca­reer rush yards are the most by an FBS QB in Florida, pass­ing Tim Te­bow, and his over­all play in 2017 has staked the Bulls to a 5-0 SU start, outscor­ing foes by al­most 25 PPG. A closer look, how­ever, shows that USF’s great start has come at the ex­pense of some me­diocre com­pe­ti­tion: San Jose State, Stony Brook, Illi­nois, Tem­ple and East Carolina. Hell, the Mis­sis­sippi National Guard could go 3-2 against that chump lineup! The Bearcats aren’t much bet­ter (1-5 In the Stats, out­gained by 88 YPG in FBS bat­tles this sea­son), but they are 12-5 ATS as dogs of 20-plus points against foes off a win, in­clud­ing fol­low­ing con­sec­u­tive losses. More sup­port for Cincy comes from the fact that the high-fly­ing Bulls qual­ify as which puts them on our SMART BOX fade list. They’re also just 3-8 ATS as fa­vorites of 20 or more points when not play­ing off a SU un­der­dog win. Add the fact that the Bearcats cur­rently stand off a SU loss and we AL­MOST want to pull the trig­ger in Tampa tonight – but not enough to ac­tu­ally do it. Pass.

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