Florida St over BOSTON COLLEGE by 8
We could tell you that the last time the Seminoles were in danger of losing five games in a season was in 2011 – Jimbo Fisher’s second year on the job. The last time they did drop that many in a campaign (2009), Bobby Bowden was still roaming the Doak Campbell sidelines. However, despite only 17 setbacks in 95 games in Tally leading up to this season, Fisher may be in the same boat if his Seminoles can’t run the table (and a trip to Clemson in early November says they can’t). In fact, a few more ‘L’s may have him joining Ol’ Bobby in a campus Cracker Barrel as Florida State is just 14-10 SU and 12-11-1 ATS in its last 24 games against FBS opposition, including 9-8 SU and 8-8-1 ATS against those with a winning record. Actually a better indicator of how fast the ‘Noles have fallen is today’s line. This 3-point spread is the cheapest number in this series since the Seminoles took 7 in 2007, with the average line -19 in the Jimbo era. A red zone defense that ranks No. 121 in the land has been one of FSU’s many Achilles heels this season, but we still can’t look past a lopsided history that finds the ‘Noles 7-0 SU in this series under Fisher – not at this number. Nor can we overlook FSU’s 5-0 SUATS weekday record or BC’s 0-5 ATS mark during weekday play, 0-4 ATS log before facing NC State and 1-5 ATS record in Game Nine. Thus, with all the numbers in the Seminoles’ favor, and BC arriving off a pair of SU underdog wins, we’ll side with the value and steep history tonight in Chestnut Hill.