AS THE NOOSE TIGHT­ENS

Playbook Football (Midweek Alert) - - 2-minute Handicap -

Novem­ber is, un­ques­tion­ably, the best time of the sea­son for sports fans. The NFL en­ters its sec­ond-half race. Col­lege Foot­ball con­cludes with teams scur­ry­ing for bowl bids while the NBA and Col­lege Bas­ket­ball tip off new cam­paigns. It’s also a great time for hand­i­cap­pers as value aplenty abounds. Some of the best value oc­curs when we fo­cus on beat­ing un­de­feated teams at this stage of the sea­son. That’s be­cause the deeper th­ese teams get into the year, the more pres­sure there is on them to re­main un­beaten. As a re­sult, the noose cer­tainly gets tighter and tighter each week, es­pe­cially when th­ese per­fect teams take to the road. This is con­firmed by the fact that, since 1980, un­de­feated Col­lege Foot­ball teams play­ing on the reg­u­lar sea­son road from Game Ten out are 112-40-1 SU and 63-80-2 ATS. Worse, when they’re in­stalled as con­fer­ence road fa­vorites, they fall to 3855-2 ATS when lay­ing more than 3 points. And when in­stalled as fa­vorites of more than 6 points off a SUATS win, they’re just 13-34 ATS, in­clud­ing 8-30 ATS in th­ese same games when also off a spread win of 6 or more points (no tight­en­ers this week, but keep this handy mov­ing for­ward). And since 2000, th­ese same guys have seen their necks snap like they’re swing­ing from the gal­lows pole, as they’re just 4-21 ATS. A warn­ing sig­nal has been sounded for Alabama and Ge­or­gia this week. Gen­tle­men, step for­ward.

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