AS THE NOOSE TIGHTENS
November is, unquestionably, the best time of the season for sports fans. The NFL enters its second-half race. College Football concludes with teams scurrying for bowl bids while the NBA and College Basketball tip off new campaigns. It’s also a great time for handicappers as value aplenty abounds. Some of the best value occurs when we focus on beating undefeated teams at this stage of the season. That’s because the deeper these teams get into the year, the more pressure there is on them to remain unbeaten. As a result, the noose certainly gets tighter and tighter each week, especially when these perfect teams take to the road. This is confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Ten out are 112-40-1 SU and 63-80-2 ATS. Worse, when they’re installed as conference road favorites, they fall to 3855-2 ATS when laying more than 3 points. And when installed as favorites of more than 6 points off a SUATS win, they’re just 13-34 ATS, including 8-30 ATS in these same games when also off a spread win of 6 or more points (no tighteners this week, but keep this handy moving forward). And since 2000, these same guys have seen their necks snap like they’re swinging from the gallows pole, as they’re just 4-21 ATS. A warning signal has been sounded for Alabama and Georgia this week. Gentlemen, step forward.