W KENTUCKY over Middle Tennessee by 4
Both the Blue Raiders and Hilltoppers own identical records (5-5, 3-3) but the feeling here is that MTSU is still being priced on reputation only while the adjustment has finally been made to 2017’s money-burning version of Western Kentucky (2-7 ATS) – a far cry from recent powerhouse editions. And with the Raiders hosting Old Dominion in next week’s regular season finale, and WKU traveling to FIU, it looks as if the visitors have the easier path to an all-important 6th win if needed. We also don’t like the fact that the Blue Man Group – 2-point home pups in this matchup last year and 7-point dogs on this field two seasons ago – are on the CUSA highway of late while the ‘Toppers are in the final two games of the regular season over the last eight years, as well as 6-2 SUATS in LHG’s. We realize this isn’t the same Western Kentucky team that has averaged 50 PPG in this matchup since 2014 but the idea of them showing up as home dogs makes this a False Favorite Special. A must take.