Iowa St over BAYLOR by 6
The Cyclones have lost four straight to the Bears as underdogs all four times by an average of 26 points, and now find themselves as a near double-digit favorite. Plus, they have not fared well as a conference road favorite of more than 7 points, going just 2-8 ATS. It was a cruel non-cover by the Cyclones last week, who lost by 7 points to Oklahoma State as 6.5-point pups after leading late in the game. It would be no surprise to see them come up a tad flat today, especially with the injury to QB Kyle Kempt, who suffered an arm injury last week and apparently will not start, instead being replaced by redshirt freshman Zeb Noland, who played the second half against the Cowboys. Meanwhile, Baylor slides deeper into the abyss, dropping to 1-9 with a 38-24 loss to Texas Tech, but did outgain the Red Raiders, 522-337. The Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last eight appearances as home dogs, but that’s not nearly enough to keep us from watching this one from a safe distance.