NOTRE DAME over Navy by 14

Playbook Football (Midweek Alert) - - Miami Florida Over -

The look on Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly’s face said it all last week: this is what it feels like to be buried un­der an avalanche. The Con­victs pre­vailed over the Catholics last Satur­day as Mi­ami seized con­trol against the Ir­ish early and never let go, blow­ing out the No. 3 ranked team in the CFB Play­off rank­ings, 41-8. While the Dame is tech­ni­cally not in ‘Bub­ble Burst’ mode today (they lost early in the sea­son to Georgia), Kelly’s crew is re­ally close af­ter the de­flat­ing loss to the Hur­ri­canes se­verely crip­pled their chances to snag a play­off spot. The Mid­dies shocked the Ir­ish in a neu­tral site meet­ing last year, 28-27, im­prov­ing their record to 4-49 SU of late in this se­ries (trans­la­tion: don’t look for it to hap­pen again soon). While Navy has pretty much sprung a leak when it comes to beat­ing Notre Dame on the score­board, the Swab­bies own some great ATS num­bers in this af­ter­noon’s rum­ble – in Game Ten as dogs of more than 6 points, 10-1-1 ATS in the first of con­sec­u­tive road games, and 6-1 ATS as dogs of 20 or more points. The Ir­ish come up short with a 2-4 SU and

record as home fa­vorites in Game Eleven ver­sus a foe off a win, and a 0-3 ATS run in Last Home Games. Our big­gest con­cern is the fact that the Mid­dies al­low 5.1 YPR while the Dame rushes for 6.8 YPR, a sure-fire way to keep a de­fense on the field for too long and wear them out. Still, we think Navy will move the ball as well, and score enough to stay un­der the num­ber. Take it if you play it.

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