JACK­SONVILLE over Buf­falo by 13

Playbook Football (Midweek Alert) - - Nfl -

Atotal of 8 new teams this sea­son earned post­sea­son berths that were on the side­lines last year, in­clud­ing each of these two squads. The Bills edged out the Charg­ers on the 4th tiebreaker to earn their first play­off berth in 17 years (com­pos­ite win per­cent­age of op­po­nents beaten over the course of the sea­son). The last team to win and make the play­offs un­der the same iden­ti­cal tiebreaker was the 2009 Green Bay Pack­ers, who went one-and-done. Good news for Buf­falo is its 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS record away all-time in games at Jack­sonville. On the flip side, NFL home teams com­ing off con­sec­u­tive losses (the Jaguars) are 14-3 SU and ATS since 1990. Look­ing in­side the stats, Jack­sonville held 7 foes to sea­son-low – or


2nd low – yardage this cam­paign, whereas Buffy was just 4-12 ITS (In The Stats) this sea­son. The bot­tom line is the Bills are los­ing games by an av­er­age of -51 net YPG this sea­son, while the Jags are 11-5 ITS, win­ning the stats by an av­er­age of +80 net YPG. Mak­ing mat­ters worse for the herd, our well-oiled ma­chine notes that NFL play­off teams in their 3rd con­sec­u­tive away game, off a SUATS win, are 9-35 SU and 13-31 ATS since 1980. With star RB Shady McCoy ques­tion­able with a wob­bly an­kle, and Buf­falo 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS away when com­ing off con­sec­u­tive away games in which the Bills are off a win of more than 3 points, look for Buf­falo to roam back home like a masochist… beaten but sat­is­fied.


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