MINNESOTA over Fresno St by 8
Second-year Gophers head coach PJ Fleck breathed a huge sigh of relief last weekend when his team cruised past New Mexico State, 48-10. Fleck has seen the natives grow restless in Minnesota after last season’s discouraging 5-7 finish snapped a 5-year bowl streak for the Gophers, and his team responded by out-yarding the Aggies 522-271 in Minny’s 2018 opener. The Bulldogs show up as last season’s pointspread darlings, posting an outrageous 10-2-1 ATS record to go along with a 10-4 SU mark. Fresno State left no doubt why Idaho dropped down to the FCS this year, destroying the Vandals, 79-13. However, while the rout looked good on paper, Idaho turned the ball over a whopping 7 times and the Bulldogs still managed only 488 yards of offense. And let’s be honest, Fresno was a big-time upstart last season, going from just 1 win in 2016 to 10 wins, which makes it easy to look for them to regress to the mean. Our database seconds that notion, pointing out the Bulldogs’ toothless 6-20 SU mark in road openers, including last five years. It’s also interesting to note that Minnesota’s Fleck is now 28-1 SU in games in which his team wins the stat battle, includng the last seventeen. We’re not stepping in front of that.