MIN­NESOTA over Fresno St by 8

Playbook Football (Midweek Alert) - - Page 10 Www.playbook.com 1.800.playbook -

Sec­ond-year Go­phers head coach PJ Fleck breathed a huge sigh of re­lief last week­end when his team cruised past New Mex­ico State, 48-10. Fleck has seen the na­tives grow rest­less in Min­nesota after last sea­son’s dis­cour­ag­ing 5-7 fin­ish snapped a 5-year bowl streak for the Go­phers, and his team re­sponded by out-yard­ing the Ag­gies 522-271 in Minny’s 2018 opener. The Bull­dogs show up as last sea­son’s pointspread dar­lings, post­ing an out­ra­geous 10-2-1 ATS record to go along with a 10-4 SU mark. Fresno State left no doubt why Idaho dropped down to the FCS this year, de­stroy­ing the Van­dals, 79-13. How­ever, while the rout looked good on pa­per, Idaho turned the ball over a whop­ping 7 times and the Bull­dogs still man­aged only 488 yards of of­fense. And let’s be hon­est, Fresno was a big-time up­start last sea­son, go­ing from just 1 win in 2016 to 10 wins, which makes it easy to look for them to regress to the mean. Our data­base sec­onds that no­tion, point­ing out the Bull­dogs’ tooth­less 6-20 SU mark in road open­ers, in­clud­ing last five years. It’s also in­ter­est­ing to note that Min­nesota’s Fleck is now 28-1 SU in games in which his team wins the stat bat­tle, in­cludng the last seven­teen. We’re not step­ping in front of that.

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