INDIANA over Ball St by 10
If you’re considering a reasonable money line play today, Indiana’s 25-5 SU success in its last 30 games against the MAC should spark some interest. But Ball State holds all the ATS cards in today’s latest meeting between two in-state rivals. Look, we’re not sure if Michigan just wore out Notre Dame the week before the Irish took on the Cardinals or if this year’s BSU team is a major step up from last year’s 2-10 failure. The point is Ball State refused to pack it in versus the Dame, falling behind 24-6 before winning the fourth quarter, 10-0, and their 34-point edge over the Domers was never seriously threatened. From our history book, teams that lose but cover against the Irish are a lofty 14-7 ATS the following game the last 10 years, including when facing non-conference foes. That sounds especially enticing when we see BSU’s outstanding
record versus Big Ten opponents ( versus foe off win), including in this series. This will also be a familiar road trip for the Cardinals as they’ve played this game in either Bloomington or at Lucas Oil Stadium for the last 10-plus years. With the Hoosiers off a pair of wins but ATS losses in each of their first two outings, our initial reaction was to back them – but we can’t do it. Not with a major revenger against Michigan State on deck. And not with IU just 8-22-1 ATS in games before the Spartans, including in non-conference tiffs. Cards go for the puppy chow.