Rail cargo posts first gain in two years as consumer goods surge

U.S. railroads are back, with freight volume posting the first quarterly gain in two years.

Carloads increased 2.8% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, with a few days remaining in the period, according to American Association of Railroads weekly reports compiled by Susquehanna Financial Group. Consumer spending fueled the gain as people bought more goods instead of spending on dining out or attending concerts during the coronavirus pandemic. That offset lower volume for oil, coal, autos and other products.

Intermodal cargo - items shipped in containers that move by ship, rail and truck - is leading the rebound, rising slightly more than 10%. The surge reflects stronger demand for electronics, patio furniture and exercise equipment as consumers are stuck at home.

The recovery is a welcome development for an industry that was struggling even before the coronavirus pandemic took hold early this year. Volume was weak as fossil fuel production slowed and growth in consumer spending was weighted toward services such as entertainment and dining out. Railroad revenue probably will drop this quarter because carriers cannot charge as much for intermodal, which is handed off to trucks for final delivery, as they can for other freight. Still, efficiency gains and cost cuts at CSX and Union Pacific probably will push their profits higher.

The carload rebound will spread to other goods - such as oil, autos, metals and sand used for fracking - as the pandemic gets under control, allowing normal activities to resume, said Lee Klaskow, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Volume at North American railroads, which includes Canada’s two largest, could increase by a percentage in the mid-single digits next year, he said.