Tillerson and the nod to a coup in Venezuela

Sometimes it takes an oilman to undermine an oilman. Reminiscent of J.R.’s tactics to edge out brother Bobby from the family Ewing Oil company in the fictional 80s “Dallas” TV show, America’s chief diplomat and Exxon oilman extraordinaire is upping the pressure on Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro. One possibility? A little military coup.

In an odd geopolitical plot twist, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson seemed to almost encourage Venezuelan military officers to oust President Nicholas Maduro. Stay tuned to see what happens next week!

Venezuela has long accused the United States of conspiring to remove its defectively elected leadership, but President Barack Obama— and President George W. Bush before him—actively denied complicity in previous coup attempts. That charade is done.

The U.S. now seems to be saying, “someone should get rid of these bad guys before things in-country stumble into total chaos—and maybe we’ll take some oil in the process.” The Secretary of State says whether “the military is the agent of change—I do not know.” His words were as close to a diplomatic wink and nod as possible.

Tillerson’s six-day swing through a bunch of Latin American countries not entirely hostile towards the U.S. was meant to reassure them not to fear President Trump’s style, warn them about rapidly increasing Chinese influence in the region, and build a coalition of the understanding and self-interested to help nudge or knock Maduro from his post. Countries on the itinerary include those Trump has identified as nations home to rapists, exporters of illegal immigrants, and those that are actively supporting drug cartels.

Harmonizing a unified Latin America policy and voice against the bile-deserving Maduro is tough enough, but it is even harder when the songbook is led by a slightly tone-deaf conductor. Unfortunately, Tillerson touted the “success” of America’s assertive 19th century Monroe Doctrine that stated the United States is the boss of Latin America—a reviled policy and sore historic point south of the border.

Secretary Tillerson was trying to illustrate how “Imperial” China is working to turn Latin American countries into Chinese neo-colonial states and away from Uncle Sam. Tillerson’s claim that China’s new and extensive loans and infrastructure projects in the Americas make these countries further beholden to Beijing is valid. The secretary, however, lost both his credibility and intended audience at “Monroe.” Naturally, a collapse of the Maduro regime might cause Venezuela to default on the tens of billions of dollars China has “lent” in exchange for below-market oil contracts.

There is no love lost for Maduro in Venezuela’s surrounding countries, but regional leaders also know that siding with the U.S. is not a great political move, as reflected in the latest Gallup polls showing Trump’s approval rating in Latin America has dropped to 16 percent.

Oil rich and cash-starved Venezuela is no longer on the verge of collapse, it is already economically imploding. The enduring socialist nightmare has the country experiencing night sweats and fever dreams. The Trump administration may no longer be lining up for nation building around the world, but it certainly is not above advocating for regime change. Maduro might consider binge watching past episodes of “Dallas” before his season ends.