Con­sumers Ex­pect a Rise In Medium-Term in­fla­tion

The Bond Buyer - - Market News - — Gary E. Siegel

Con­sumers’ in­fla­tion ex­pec­ta­tions held for one-year, but rose for the three-year hori­zon, ac­cord­ing to the Septem­ber Sur­vey of Con­sumer Ex­pec­ta­tions, re­leased by the Fed­eral Re­serve Bank of New York on Tues­day.

“In par­tic­u­lar, ex­pec­ta­tions about earn­ings, spend­ing, in­come growth, home prices, fi­nan­cial sit­u­a­tions and the stock mar­ket all de­te­ri­o­rated,” the sur­vey noted.

Me­dian in­fla­tion ex­pec­ta­tions held at 2.5% in Septem­ber for a one-year pe­riod and grew to 2.8% from 2.5% for a three­year hori­zon.

Turn­ing to la­bor, the ex­pec­ta­tion for oneyear earn­ings gains fell to 2.3% from 2.5%. The mean prob­a­bil­ity of los­ing one’s job in the next 12 months held at 13.8%, while the mean per­ceived prob­a­bil­ity of leav­ing one’s job vol­un­tar­ily in the next 12 months fell to 20.6% from 21.7%.

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