Can Ohio St. hold off Illini for No. 1 seed?
In a battle between two projected No. 1 seeds, Ohio State fell to Michigan 92-87 on Sunday at home.
The Buckeyes (18-5, 12-5) and top No. 2 seed Illinois are so close that Ohio State would have dropped from its No. 1 seed with a loss to any other Big Ten team besides Michigan.
The Fighting Illini (16-5, 12-3) haven’t lost since Jan. 16, a head-to-head meeting with the Buckeyes that is the difference maker right now.
When applying a blind résumé test, Ohio State has eight Quadrant 1 (top-25 home, top-75 away) victories compared to Illinois’ seven. But the Illini have a better NET score of 4 compared to OSU’S 7, partially due to playing two fewer games, which included a postponement of their scheduled Feb. 11 clash with Michigan (now slated for March 2).
Ohio State has a better strength of schedule, but Illinois could shorten the margin by playing four of its last five on the road – with all of those Quad 1 opportunities. OSU, meanwhile, only has three games in Big Ten play remaining.
Gonzaga, Baylor and Michigan are close to solidifying No. 1 seeds. Should this battle for the final top seed remain tight, a March 6 meeting between Ohio State and Illinois – the Big Ten finale for both teams – could be a crucial outcome for the NCAA selection committee entering Selection Sunday, which is March 14.
The NCAA Tournament tips March 18.
No. 1 seeds: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Ohio State.
Last four in: Seton Hall, Minnesota, Maryland, Syracuse.
First four out: Georgia Tech, Indiana, Connecticut, Utah State.
Next four out: St. Johns, Stanford, Ole Miss, SMU.
Others considered for at-large bids: Memphis, Richmond, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, UAB, Georgia, Duke.
On life support: TCU, Marquette, Providence, Marshall, Utah, Arizona State, Oregon State, Mississippi State, Kentucky, South Carolina, Texas A&M, St Mary’s, San Francisco, Michigan State, North Carolina State, Dayton, off
Davidson, Nevada, Penn State.
Multi-bid conferences: Big Ten (9), Big 12 (7), ACC (6), SEC (6), Pac-12 (4), Big East (4), Mountain West (3), Atlantic 10 (2), Missouri Valley (2), West Coast (2).
Leaders or highest NET from projected one-bid conferences - (20 total): America East - UMBC, Atlantic Sun - Liberty, Big Sky - Eastern Washington, Big South - Winthrop, Big West - UCSB, CAA - Northeastern, C-USA UAB, Horizon - Wright State, MAAC Siena, MAC - Toledo, MEAC - Norfolk St., Northeast - Bryant, OVC - Belmont, Patriot - Navy, Southern - UNCG, Southland - Sam Houston, SWAC Prairie View A&M, Summit - South Dakota, Sun Belt - Texas State, WAC Grand Canyon
Banned from participating: Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Delaware State, Auburn, Arizona
Transition schools, ineligible for the tournament: Cal Baptist, North Alabama, Merrimack, Dixie State, Tarleton State, Bellarmine, UC San Diego
College football is getting back into the swing of things little more than one month after Alabama beat Ohio State to capture the national championship.
Teams will return to practice fields this month for spring drills as the Football Bowl Subdivision turns to the 2021 season. Every program continues to work with safety protocols established to meet the demands of the COVID-19 pandemic while introducing incoming recruits and transfers to rosters set to balloon over the 85-scholarship limit.
Over in the Big Ten, the road to the conference championship again will go through Ohio State. Here's where teams stand heading into the spring for the Buckeyes and the rest of the Big Ten:
Illinois: The scheme Illinois coach Bret Bielema relied on during his time at Wisconsin probably won't work for a roster and program lacking the depth and experience to bully Big Ten teams on the line of scrimmage. To get the Illini out of a nearly decade-long rut on offense, Bielema could blend spread concepts into an offense that has options at running back and the pieces for a solid line. Everything is conjecture until Illinois steps onto the field this spring.
Indiana: All-conference quarterback Michael Penix Jr. tore his ACL in late November and isn't expected to be at full strength until the summer, coach Tom Allen said in December. Worryingly, Penix has suffered season-ending injuries in each of the last three years. IU has groomed a possible replacement in Jack Tuttle, who showed promise in two lateseason starts. But the Hoosiers are a different team with Penix under center.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes are replacing three starters on a line that keyed the stiffest run defense in the Big Ten (2.8 yards allowed per carry), including a pair of the league's best in Chauncey Golston and Daviyon Nixon. The new group will build around end Zach Vanvalkenburg, who took advantage of a sixth year of eligibility, but Iowa coaches may need to evaluate the transfer portal after the spring to find additional bodies to add
into the rotation.
Maryland: The Terrapins' class ranked fourth in the Big Ten and 19th nationally, per 247Sports.com, providing a huge talent boost for a program that had just one player land on the three all-conference teams after the 2020 season. One incoming prospect expected to make an immediate impact is five-star linebacker Terrence Lewis, who joins a position group that leans young and should see extensive offseason competition.
Michigan: The list of three contenders – Cade Mcnamara, Joe Milton and true freshman J.J. Mccarthy – was trimmed to just two after Milton entered the transfer portal. With last year's primary starter evaluating his options, Mcnamara is the likely choice to take over after wrestling the job from Milton in the final two games of last season. One of the nation's top quarterback prospects in his class, Mccarthy is the projected future of the position and is on campus for the spring.
Michigan State: Few teams have been as focused on the transfer portal as MSU, which has already brought in seven players and could add another three or more before the start of fall camp. That should drastically change the makeup of the Spartans' roster heading into Mel Tucker's
second season.
Minnesota: Minnesota is loaded with starters on both sides of the ball but needs to replace star receiver Rashod Bateman, a potential first-round pick in the NFL draft. The Gophers won't have to look far: Chris Autman-bell averaged 19.6 yards per catch in 2020 and will benefit from the attention defenses will pay to running back Ibrahim.
Nebraska: Scott Frost's system has yet to flourish as expected while the Cornhuskers struggle to add a downfield passing game to one of the Big Ten's top rushing attacks. There are three parts to finding improvement in this key area: pass protection, accuracy at quarterback and big targets at receiver. With the line rounding into form and a few talented options out wide, the onus will fall on Adrian Martinez to recapture at least part of the form that once made him a preseason Heisman Trophy contender.
Northwestern: There are plenty of spots to fill as Northwestern looks to recapture the West division championship. The losses are felt hardest on defense, where there'll be a new coordinator in Jim O'neil and new starters at cornerback and linebacker. That will shift the focus to a defensive line heavy on juniors and seniors.
Ohio State: That's always the case at OSU, though it's harder to peg the Buckeyes for the national title without knowing exactly what Ryan Day will get at quarterback. (C.J. Stroud is the heavy favorite to replace Justin Fields.) But it's no surprise to see OSU overflowing with talent across the board on offense, especially at wide receiver. What may determine the Buckeyes' 2021 season is whether the defense can improve along the back seven; all three starters must be replaced at linebacker.
Penn State: It'll be an important spring for the offense under first-year coordinator Mike Yurcich, who most recently held the same position at Texas. With backup quarterback Will Levis off to Kentucky, the focus this offseason will be on developing Sean Clifford in a system that has historically been built around consistent quarterback play.
Purdue: At least the Boilermakers have done it before. Wide receiver Rondale Moore didn't play in the first three games of 2020, including Purdue's only two wins. Replacing his impact will take a group-wide effort centered around David Bell, who averaged 104.2 yards per game last season. In terms of a new starter in the slot, look for Anthrop to get first crack at the job.
Rutgers: Rutgers went 3-6 in Greg Schiano's debut, an unqualified success given the program's woeful recent history. Expectations will be high heading into 2021. What's a fair next step in Schiano's second year? Competing for a bowl bid coming out of the East division isn't too much to ask.
Wisconsin: After holding opponents to 3.4 yards per carry and just two scores in 2020, Wisconsin's ability to stop the run is a concern after losing several starters off last year's defensive front. The group will rebuild around nose tackle Keeanu Benton, a very good starting point, but the Badgers are otherwise fairly thin on experience. But history suggests no major drop in production: Wisconsin has allowed more than 4.0 yards per carry just once in the past nine seasons.