Pro­posed tax would pull in $3.38B


PORT­LAND, Ore. — A new anal­y­sis of Ini­tia­tive Pe­ti­tion 28 — Ore­gon’s big­gest-ever cor­po­rate tax hike pro­posal that’s headed for the Novem­ber bal­lot — shows the boost in busi­ness tax rev­enue and gov­ern­ment jobs could be even greater than the state’s widely-pub­li­cized es­ti­mates from a month ago.

The study, re­leased Wed­nes­day by the North­west Economic Re­search Cen­ter at Port­land State Univer­sity, projects the mea­sure would trig­ger a nearly $3.38 bil­lion-jump in tax rev­enue from Ore­gon’s wealth­i­est 1,000 busi­nesses next year and then grad­u­ally es­ca­late over the next decade to $4.3 bil­lion in 2027. Our Ore­gon, the union-backed group be­hind IP 28, paid the re­search cen­ter $45,000 to do the study.

The state’s Leg­isla­tive Rev­enue Of­fice projects a slightly smaller $3 bil­lion­jump in tax rev­enue next year and then sta­bi­lize in that range over five years, which is as far as that fore­cast goes.

As for em­ploy­ment, the NERC study projects more than 30,000 gov­ern­ment jobs would be cre­ated within a decade, al­most dou­ble the state’s es­ti­mate. The pri­vate sec­tor, on the other hand, would lose roughly 20,000 jobs over 10 years, ver­sus the state’s es­ti­mate of 38,200 in half the time.

Aside from those dis­par­i­ties, mostly due to dif­fer­ent method­olo­gies, both stud­ies were neu­tral on IP 28 and reached sim­i­lar con­clu­sions about its broader economic im­pact and the un­knowns.

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