market, accounting for 62 percent of sales, down from 98 percent of the market today.
The continuing demand for gasoline will be driven by a demand for mild to full hybrids, which still rely on internal combustion engines, according to the study
“Oil’s monopoly as a transport fuel will erode as a new era of multidimensional competition takes hold — but it will remain a major player,” Jim Burkhard, IHS Markit’s vice president of global energy markets and mobility, said in a statement Tuesday. “Many of its advantages as a fuel, such as its high energy density, will persist. And the size of the current automotive ecosystem will moderate the pace of change.”
As the three disrupting factors in the study — mobility, electric vehicles and self-driving cars — converge with one another over the next 20 years, Carlson said there is no one driving force in the change of the industry.
“These factors represent a sum that is greater than the individual parts,” he said.