The Mercury News Weekend

2016 mirrors years that sparked wars

- By Victor Davis Hanson Victor Davis Hanson is a syndicated columnist.

This summer, President Barack Obama was often golfing. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were promising to let the world be. The end of summer seemed sleepy, the world relatively calm.

The summer of 1914 in Europe also seemed quiet. But on July 28, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria was assassinat­ed in Sarajevo by Gavrilo Princip with help from his accomplice­s, fellow Serbian separatist­s. That isolated act sparked World War I.

In the summer of 1939, most observers thought Adolf Hitler was finally through with his serial bullying. Appeasemen­t supposedly had satiated his once enormous territoria­l appetites. But on Sept. 1, Nazi Germany unexpected­ly invaded Poland and touched off World War II.

Wars often seem to come out of nowhere. The instigator­s often are weaker attackers who foolishly assume that more powerful nations wish peace at any cost, and so will not react to opportunis­tic aggression.

Unfortunat­ely, our latesummer calm of 2016 has masked festering tensions that are coming to a head — largely due to disengagem­ent by a supposedly tired United States.

In contrast, war, unlike individual states, does not sleep.

Russia has been massing troops on its border with Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin apparently believes that Europe is in utter disarray and assumes that Obama remains most interested in apologizin­g to foreign- ers for the past evils of the United States. Putin is wagering that no tired Western power could or would stop his reabsorpti­on of Ukraine — or the Baltic states next.

Iran swapped American hostages for cash. An Iranian missile narrowly missed a U.S. aircraft carrier not long ago. Iranians hijacked an American boat and buzzed our warships in the Persian Gulf. There are frequent promises from Tehran to destroy either Israel, America or both. So much for the peace dividend of the “Iran deal.”

North Korea is more than just delusional. Recent nuclear tests and missile launches toward Japan suggest that North Korean strongman Kim Jong-un actually believes that he could win a war, thereby gaining even larger concession­s from the West and Asian neighbors.

Europe and the United States have been bewildered by huge numbers of largely young male migrants from the wartorn Middle East. Political correctnes­s has paralyzed Western leaders from even articulati­ng the threat, much less replying to it.

Aggressors are also encouraged by vast cutbacks in the U.S. defense budget. The lame-duck Obama presidency, lead-from-behind policies and a culturally and racially divided America reflect voter weariness with overseas commitment­s. It would be a mistake to assume that war is impossible because it logically benefits no one, or is outdated in our sophistica­ted 21st century.

Human nature is unchanging and remains irrational. Evil is eternal. Unfortunat­ely, appeasemen­t is often seen by thugs not as magnanimit­y but as timidity to be exploited.

Someone soon will have to tell the North Koreans that a stable world order cannot endure its frequent missile launches and nuclear detonation­s. Someone could remind Putin that the former Soviet republics have a right to self-determinat­ion.

Someone might inform the Chinese that no one can plop down artificial islands and military bases to control commercial sea lanes. Someone might make it clear to radical Islamic terrorists that there is a limit to Western patience with their chronic destructio­n.

The problem is that there is no other “someone” with the requisite power and authority except the United States. But for a long time America has done more than its fair share of internatio­nal policing — and its people are tired of costly dragonslay­ing abroad.

The result is that at this late date, the tough medicine of restoring long-term deterrence is almost as dangerous as the disease of continual short-term appeasemen­t.

Obama apparently assumes he can leave office as a peacemaker before his appeased chickens come home to roost. He has assured us the world has never been calmer and quieter.

Others said the same thing in 1914 and 1939.

War clouds are gathering. A hard rain is soon going to fall.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from United States