Officials worry over possible shutdown

ALBANY, N.Y.>> The impact of the first federal government shutdown since 2013 will be felt in New York if President Donald Trump and Congress miss the April 28 deadline to put a spending plan in place, officials said Tuesday.

Federal tax refunds will be delayed, federal parks and his- toric sites will be closed to the public, and federal workers will be furloughed. Social Security checks, mail delivery and vital government functions such as national defense, homeland security and air traffic control will not be affected.

More broadly, the potential economic impact of a shutdown will be great, Jim Malatras of the SUNY Rockefeller Institute said Tuesday.

“All the (state and local) government revenue forecasts are down across the nation, including New York,” he said. “The Trump budget didn’t help with that situation. This would then be another nail in the proverbial revenue coffin where states and locals are just going to struggle some more, because what the business community doesn’t like is uncertainty and this is creating uncertainty.”

Federal funds headed to New York would not be impacted as greatly, since most are paid in advance and any losses resulting from a shutdown would be repaid, said Malatras, a former top aide to Gov. Andrew Cuomo who is now at the SUNY public policy study center.

Cuomo’s office said that if a shutdown occurs and drags on, the impact would be magnified. “Long term, it is a real issue (of concern),” Cuomo press aide Rich Azzopardi said.

National Parks administrators have been told to prepare

to close if there is no new spending agreement or an extension of the current plan in place.

“If Congress does not pass a continuing resolution or a budget, we would be closing our doors,” Saratoga National Historic Park Superintendent Amy Bracewell said Tuesday. “The park would be closed.”

That includes the battlefield, the Philip Schuyler House, Victory Woods where the British surrendered, and the Battle Monument. Plans are to have just one person on duty in case of an emergency.

It is unclear if the GOP controlled Congress will be able to prevent a shutdown on April 28. Trump has demanded funding for a wall with Mexico as part of any deal, a move opposed by many Democrats as well as some GOP representatives from areas where the wall would be built.

Trump has also threatened withhold Obamacare health insurance subsidies unless his wall ultimatum is met. Complicating the budget scenario is the need for the GOP to get Democratic votes to put in place any kind of spending plan, since some Republicans will not vote for any federal spending bill.

Tuesday, some reports out of Washington suggested a deal was in the works, with funding for the wall put on hold.

The last shutdown in 2013 lasted 16 days, during which “Federal government employees were furloughed for a combined total of 6.6 million days, more than during any previous Federal government shutdown,” the Obama administration said in a report issued a month after the crisis ended.

“Employees not on the job could not conduct food, product, and workplace safety inspections; prepare for f lu season or monitor other public health issues; process tax refunds or respond to taxpayer questions; or provide numerous other services important to the general public and the economy,” the report said.

Beyond that, the impact on the economy was put in the billions.

“Leading independent forecasters estimate that the shutdown will lower fourth quarter real GDP growth by 0.2-0.6 percentage points or more, or $2$6 billion in lost output,” the Obama report said.

U. S. Rep. Paul Tonko ( D- Amsterdam) issued a similar warning last week when talking about a shutdown during a stop in Saratoga Springs, saying a shutdown next week could mean billions in lost economic activity.

Beyond that, the impact on the economy was put in the billions.