Hur­ri­cane Jose con­tin­ues to lurk o≠ East Coast

The Washington Post Sunday - - NEWS - BY GREG PORTER

Hur­ri­cane Jose con­tin­ued to me­an­der off the coast on Satur­day, spin­ning about 500 miles south­east of Cape Hat­teras, N.C.

A sprawl­ing high-pres­sure sys­tem over the cen­tral At­lantic Ocean is pre­vent­ing Jose from head­ing out to sea, mean­ing it could pose a threat to parts of the East Coast through the com­ing week.

Af­ter weak­en­ing to a trop­i­cal storm on Thurs­day, Jose re­turned to Cat­e­gory 1 hur­ri­cane sta­tus Fri­day night. Its max­i­mum sus­tained winds were 80 mph as of mid­day Satur­day, ac­cord­ing to the Na­tional Hur­ri­cane Cen­ter.

Un­der weak up­per-level winds, Jose had made lim­ited for­ward progress over the past week. How­ever, over the next few days, the western edge of the high-pres­sure sys­tem that is trap­ping Jose is ex­pected to weaken. This should cre­ate a path for es­cape.

The con­sen­sus track from the lat­est weather model up­dates now keeps Jose well off the Mid-At­lantic coast, with the storm likely to make its clos­est pass to the D.C. re­gion Tues­day. At that point, Jose should be 100 miles or more east of Delaware, mean­ing that the lo­cal im­pact will mostly be lim­ited to large ocean swells. Far­ther north, how­ever, the storm could come closer to land.

Folks on Long Island and across coastal New Eng­land should keep in­creased at­ten­tion to Jose as the week pro­gresses. It is un­clear what the in­ten­sity of Jose will be at that point — it may even be act­ing some­what like a win­ter­time nor’easter by then. Re­gard­less, the like­li­hood of im­pacts such as strong winds and at least mi­nor storm surge is height­ened.

Along with Jose, trop­i­cal storm ac­tion in the At­lantic re­mains ex­tremely ac­tive. Trop­i­cal Storm Lee was named Satur­day morn­ing off the African coast, to the west of the Cape Verde Is­lands.

Out ahead of Lee, a po­ten­tially more omi­nous low-pres­sure dis­tur­bance is gath­er­ing steam. Likely to soon be chris­tened Maria, this area of or­ga­nized con­vec­tion is show­ing signs of in­ten­si­fi­ca­tion. It is presently track­ing due west to­ward the Lesser An­tilles.

Un­for­tu­nately, con­di­tions sim­i­lar to those that al­lowed Hur­ri­cane Irma to in­ten­sify and track through parts of the island chain are still more or less in place. Cur­rent model projections are cer­tainly con­cern­ing for a re­gion still reel­ing.

The Na­tional Hur­ri­cane Cen­ter is fore­cast­ing a hur­ri­cane in the days ahead, and it is pos­si­ble some places could take a se­cond di­rect hit over the com­ing week.

Far­ther down the line, if a hur­ri­cane sur­vives its trek near or through the Caribbean, the United States may have to watch this, as well.

More at wash­ing­ton­post.com/ news/cap­i­tal-weather-gang

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