Trumpcare 2.0 won’t go anywhere, either
The GOP 2.0 version of the American Health Care Act has about as much appeal as the original AHCA, or maybe less. It’s still a big tax cut for the rich, a hit to the pocketbooks of older and more rural voters, and less generous than what recipients received under Obamacare. Would a moderate in a district that Hillary Clinton carried overwhelmingly go for this? It’d be a high-risk proposition. Would a conservative who sees more regulation (the essential benefits) going back into the deal be thrilled? Probably not. Moreover, it’s clear the Senate would reject the bill, because moderates previously said they’d refuse to go along with a Medicaid rollback.
The list of people who would not like it is long: right-wing activists; Republicans in swing districts; every Democrat; Karen Handel (the GOP candidate in the Georgia 6th Congressional District runoff election), who’d have to take a position on a cruddy bill; doctors; hospitals; and the AARP.
If you don’t feel like this makes a lot of sense, you’re not alone. Drew Altman of the Kaiser Family Foundation writes, “The president doesn’t have strong convictions himself about future directions for health care. But health policy is not like real estate. The partisan divide in health policy is grounded in deeply felt differences on both sides over policy and principle. It’s hard to see Trump’s approach to dealmaking working very often in health.” President Trump may not care about the details, in other words, but plenty of people do. His threat to wreck Obamacare is utterly ineffective because Democrats may “calculate, for example, that the administration will own the fallout for a collapse in the marketplaces, as polls are starting to suggest they will. Lawmakers are also hard to threaten because most come from safe political districts. . . . and they have been getting safer and more polarized.”
Given that AHCA 1.0 was hugely unpopular and rotten from a policy standpoint, it is far from clear that Republicans want to give the latest iteration a try.