What would hap­pen if we gave ‘peace’ a chance?

The Washington Times Weekly - - Commentary - Tony Blank­ley

We are all aware of the dan­ger­ous Mid­dle East con­di­tions the United States faces to­day af­ter five and a half years of Pres­i­dent Bush’s lead­er­ship. So let’s con­sider what the world might well look like if, in his re­main­ing two and a half years, he were to fol­low the rec­om­men­da­tions of his crit­ics.

First: Amer­ica out of Iraq by the end of 2007.

We­warn the Iraqis to get off their duffs and pre­pare to be in charge by Dec. 31, 2007. We depart (leav­ing a cou­ple of di­vi­sions in a desert base some­where in Kuwait — per John Murtha’s over the hori­zon strat­egy).

The Iraqi mil­i­tary and po­lice are still not able to man­age. Full scale civil war breaks out. The Ira­ni­ans en­ter to give help to the Shias. The Egyp­tians, Saudis and other Sunni states lend a hand to help the Iraqi Sun­nis. The Kurds de­clare an in­de­pen­dent Kur­dis­tan. The Turks go to war against the Kurds af­ter Kur­dish PKK ter­ror­ists hit the Turks yet again. The Sun­nis try to take a piece of Kur­dish oil re­sources near Kirkuk. The Shia work­ers, who dom­i­nate Saudi’s south­ern oil fields at­tack Saudi pipe­lines in sol­i­dar­ity with Ira­nian Shia led fight­ing in Iraq.

Kuwait de­mands our two di­vi­sions im­me­di­ately leave, as it is arous­ing the hos­til­ity of its pop­u­la­tion. Qatar makes the same de­mand, for same rea­son, of our

naval base. The

United States

com­plies.

Sec­ond: Pres­i­dent Bush forces

Is­rael to ac­cept

Hezbol­lah’s role

as a non­ter­ror­ist,

so­cial ser­vices­based po­lit­i­cal

party in

Le­banon.

In a spe­cial

elec­tion Hezbol­lah com­bines its sup­port amongst Le­banon’s Shias (40 per­cent of pop­u­la­tion), with voter in­tim­i­da­tion to dom­i­nate the next gov­ern­ment led by Pres­i­dent Has­san Nas­ral­lah.

Third: Pres­i­dent Bush fi­nally per­son­ally “leans on Is­rael” to ne­go­ti­ate for peace with the Pales­tini­ans.

No longer in the sway of the “Jewish lobby,” Mr. Bush threat­ens to cut off Is­rael from all dol­lars, mil­i­tary equip­ment (in­clud­ing spare parts) and diplo­matic sup­port. He threat­ens eco­nomic sanc­tions if Is­rael doesn’t ne­go­ti­ate a peace with Ha­mas-led Pales­tini­ans.

Go­ing be­yond Pres­i­dent Clin­ton’s peace deal of 2000, which was re­jected by Yasser Arafat, Ha­mas de­mands Is­rael re­turn to pre-1967 borders, turn over the Golan Heights to Syria, no West Bank oc­cu­pa­tion (in­clud­ing in sub­urbs of Jerusalem), the right of re­turn of the first half mil­lion Pales­tini­ans to Is­rael proper and turn­ing over Jerusalem to a United Na­tions man­date. Is­rael is com­pelled to agree.

They sign the agree­ment that rec­og­nizes two states.

On the next day (Nov. 29, 2007 — 60 years to the day from when the first post-U.N. res­o­lu­tion Arab ter­ror­ist at­tack on Jews oc­curred the day af­ter the U.N. res­o­lu­tion for an in­de­pen­dent Is­rael was passed in 1947) Is­rael is be­sieged by ter­ror­ists and in­ten­sively grouped mis­sile at­tacks on the north by Hezbol­lah-run Le­banon, on the south from Gaza and in the cen­ter from Janin to He­bron in the new state of the Is­lamic Repub­lic of Pales­tine. Syria mil­i­tar­ily re-oc­cu­pies the Golan Heights. U.N.-ad­min­is­tered Jerusalem be­comes, with U.N. ac­qui­es­cence, a free pas­sage zone for ter­ror­ists into Is­rael. When the Knes­set is bombed by ter­ror­ists, Is­rael de­clares a de­fen­sive, ex­is­ten­tial three-front war against Le­banon, Syria and the Is­lamic Repub­lic of Pales­tine. The war es­ca­lates fast to­ward the edge of Is­rael’s con­ven­tional mil­i­tary ca­pac­ity.

Fourth: The United States takes mil­i­tary op­tion off the ta­ble re­gard­ing Ira­nian nu­clear ne­go­ti­a­tions.

Af­ter U.S./French/Bri­tish-pro­posed fee­ble U.N. sanc­tions are blocked by Rus­sia and China, the world com­mu­nity ac­cepts re­al­ity of Ira­nian nu­clear as­pi­ra­tions, but ex­pects to be able to de­ter Iran as we did the Sovi­ets for 50 years, should they ever de­velop such ca­pac­ity.

Just as the CIA had been caught un­aware by the speed of Soviet, Chi­nese, In­dian, Pak­istani and North Korean atomic bomb de­vel­op­ment from the 1940s to the 1990s, in the sum­mer of 2007,the CIA in tes­ti­mony to the Congress ad­mit­ted that its five-10 year pre­dic­tion of Ira­nian bomb ac­qui­si­tion was off by four-nine years. This tes­ti­mony fol­lowed by a week, Iran’s first un­der­ground test­ing of a nu­clear de­vice.

Pres­i­dent Ah­madine­jad threat­ens to un­leash the “fire of Al­lah,” should the United States, Turkey, Egypt or Saudi Ara­bia fur­ther in­ter­vene in Iraq. The same “fire of Al­lah” is threat­ened at the “Zion­ist En­tity” if she doesn’t im­me­di­ately stop her war against Syria, Le­banon and the Is­lamic Repub­lic of Pales­tine.

Egypt, Saudi Ara­bia and Turkey re­quest im­me­di­ate pub­licly ac­knowl­edged cov­er­age un­der the United State’s nu­clear um­brella — at least un­til their joint crash pro­gram to de­velop their own nu­clear bombs can be ac­com­plished.

The 2008 Amer­i­can pres­i­den­tial cam­paign re­volves around whether to grant such a nu­clear guar­an­tee — in the face of Iran’s on­go­ing ter­ror­ist/politico/mil­i­tary hege­monic ad­vance to­ward the Caspian, Mediter­ranean and Red Seas.

The Demo­cratic can­di­date for pres­i­dent is blam­ing Pres­i­dent Bush and the Repub­li­cans for both: 1) forc­ing Is­rael into an un­ten­able “peace,” and 2) the pre­cip­i­tous de­par­ture from Iraq — both ac­tions of which has left the Mid­dle East ablaze and a hair trig­ger’s touch away from nu­clear det­o­na­tion.

Price of a bar­rel of crude oil on Elec­tion Day 2008 — $250.

Tony Blank­ley is edi­to­rial page ed­i­tor of The Wash­ing­ton Times. He can be reached via e-mail at tblank­ley@wash­ing­ton­times.com.

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