Ashifting political landscape
Democratic control of Congress may be thinner and more tenuous, especially in the long run, than postelection analysts thus far have been willing to acknowledge.
Democrats have a 233-to-202 majority in the House, but many of them picked up Republicanheld seats by paper-thin margins in a very dismal environment for the GOP.
For example: Democrats gained a total of 14 House seats by less than 10,000 votes each, or roughly by a margin of 5 percentage points or less. Most if not all of these gains were in Republican-heavy districts that, with a more favorable political climate and good candidates, could be back in the GOP column in 2008 and likely will be.
Longer term, though, Democrats face an even bigger election problem: the ongoing population shifts from the North to the Sunbelt states that will benefit Republicans more than Democrats in the next decade and could also enlarge the GOP’s electoral count in presidential elections.
While demographic and political analysts caution that Democrats have offset the GOP’s Sunbelt advantage with new gains in the Northeast and have made gains in parts of the South and Southwest, they say the sheer size of the migration by the end of this decade will help Republicans more.
“I think on balance the Republi- cans will benefit from the large number of seats in the Sunbelt region. They won’t get 100 percent of it, but more than the Democrats do,” said Merle Black, a veteran historian and analyst in Southern political realignment at Georgia’s Emory University.
The significance of this continuing realignment was reported this month in a study by Election Data Services, a firm that analyzes how population movements affect redistricting changes under reapportionment.
Its projections of the number of Americans moving from the Democratic Northeast to the more Republican-friendly Southern and Western states “showthat seven congressional seats in 13 states have already changed at this point in the decade.”
EDS forecasts that these seven — Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Iowa, Missouri and Louisiana — will lose House seats, and six will gain them: Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Utah gaining one each and Texas getting two.
But in a separate analysis, Polidata, a Washington-area demographic and political research firm, sees a larger “probable” shift in seats from the North to the Sunbelt regions.
Under these “probable changes, there could be 13 seats shifting amongst 19 states, eight gainers and 11 losers. All the gainers are in the South and West and all the losers are in the East and Midwest except Louisiana, Polidata said.
The “biggest gainers” would be Texas, with four additional seats, and two each in Florida and Ari- zona. Georgia, Utah, Nevada, Oregon and Washington statewould each gain one.
The biggest losers: New York and Ohio, losing two seats each, while Massachusetts, NewJersey, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri and Louisiana would lose one.
Since each state’s electoral votes are based on its representation in Congress, the shift in House seats to the Sunbelt, where Republicans are strongest in presidential elections, would mean increased clout in the Electoral College, too.
“Overall, given a 2004 electoral vote of 286 Bush to 252 Kerry, the vote count based upon these 2010 projections would have been 292 Bush, 246 Kerry, a gain of six for the Republican ticket,” Polidata said.
However, analysts who have studied these projections say that while there would be GOP House gains in the South and Southwest, they note that last year’s election resulted in a decline in Republican strength in the South and a Democratic increase in the Northeast.
Mr. Black points out that the number of SouthernRepublican House seats fell from 82 to 77 seats, while Democrats sawtheir numbers rise from 49 to 54.
“That dropped the Republican surplus in the South to 23 seats,” he said.
In the Northeast, 68 House seats were held by the Democrats and only 24 by Republicans, the result of a rash of GOP losses from New Hampshire to Pennsylvania — giving Democrats a 44seat surplus in the region.
“So for the first time in modern American politics, the Democrats’ lead out of the Northeast is larger than the Republican lead in the South. If that continues, it would be a major structural change in American politics,” he said.
Another caveat in all this is “We don’t really know the demographics that are driving the in and out migration,” says election analyst Rhodes Cook.
“Some of them could be affluent white conservatives but they might be Hispanics who tend to vote more Democratic.” Of course, that’s what redistricting can even out when the new lines are drawn, and the Republicans will be in charge of drawing them in states like Texas and Florida.
The bottom line: Democrats won in the short-term in 2006 because of an unpopular war and a spate of scandals, a combination they will not have going for them in the 2012 elections. But the longer term population trend lines are working to the GOP’s advantage well into the next decade and perhaps beyond that.
Donald Lambro, chief political correspondent of The Washington Times, is a nationally syndicated columnist.