GAINS FOR GOP
The Rothenberg Political Report has just released its latest outlook for next year’s House races and is predicting small gains for Republicans.
“The Republican brand remains damaged, and GOP registration is down in most states, but 2009-10 surely will be a better cycle for Republicans than the last two,” lead author Stuart Rothenberg writes.
Midterm congressional elections “are almost always difficult for the party in the White House, and questions about Democratic turnout are significant. . . . Retirements will play a significant part in determining which party will gain seats and how many they will net. ...
“Even with their 257 districts, Democrats still have a number of opportunities in seats currently held by the GOP. But they also have a considerable number of conservative and Republican seats to defend. Given possible shifting of the national political landscape, some of these districts could grow increasingly vulnerable over the next 18 months.
“It’s still far too early to put a number on net changes this cycle, though small Republican gains would seem the most likely outcome.”
Mr. Rothenberg right now sees 39 House seats in play: 13 held by Republicans and 26 by Democrats.