AN ODDS-ON FA­VORITE TO WIN

The Washington Times Weekly - - Politics -

President Trump could win the White House again in 2020 — which likely would send hos­tile po­lit­i­cal op­er­a­tives and the dis­ap­prov­ing news me­dia into an epic melt­down. News flash: Get ready. Mr. Trump will likely win re-elec­tion, says one an­a­lyst.

“President Trump did not as­cend to the White House in the usual way; he broke with tra­di­tional cam­paign or­tho­doxy and tac­tics,” Ford O’Con­nell, a po­lit­i­cal an­a­lyst and ad­junct pro­fes­sor at the Ge­orge Washington Univer­sity Grad­u­ate School of Po­lit­i­cal Man­age­ment, tells In­side the Belt­way.

“While Trump’s first six months in the White House have been marked by early stum­bles, a healthy dose of palace in­trigue and low ap­proval num­bers, his­tory says Trump is in fact the odds-on fa­vorite to win re-elec­tion in 2020, should he choose to run. Why? Be­cause pres­i­den­tial in­cum­bency has its priv­i­leges. Since 1900, 20 pres­i­dents have sought re-elec­tion. Of those, 15 won and five lost — that is, if you in­clude Ger­ald Ford, who was never elected in the first place.”

Adds Mr. O’Con­nell, “So how does President Trump avoid be­com­ing the sixth president to be fired by the peo­ple in the last 120 years? Bar­ring some un­fore­seen calamity or Dwayne ‘The Rock’ John­son be­com­ing the Demo­cratic pres­i­den­tial nom­i­nee, the fate of Trump’s pres­i­dency will live and die with the state of the econ­omy in the fall of 2020.

“To en­sure that the elec­toral winds are fa­vor­able to Trump, his ad­min­is­tra­tion must de­liver re­sults by pass­ing tax re­form be­fore the 2018 midterms, show­ing sig­nif­i­cant progress on other key cam­paign prom­ises: se­cur­ing Amer­ica’s bor­ders, in­fra­struc­ture, trade, con­ser­va­tive judicial ap­pointees. He must also con­tinue to in­still in work­ing-class vot­ers in both the Rust Belt (Ohio, Penn­syl­va­nia, Iowa, Michi­gan, Wis­con­sin) and Sun Belt (Florida, North Carolina, Ari­zona) bat­tle­ground states the be­lief that he is tire­lessly fight­ing for them. If Trump does that, vot­ers will for­give his im­petu­ous ways and re­hire him,” the pro­fes­sor con­cludes. — a mix that in­cludes fam­ily in­flu­ences, an ur­bane and metropoli­tan back­ground, and other fac­tors. How do vot­ers judge him?

“On the one hand, they think that Trump’s a con­ser­va­tive. On the other, they think he’s not a con­ser­va­tive. They don’t know what to make of him. That is a prob­lem for him. He needs to clearly de­fine his poli­cies,” Mr. Sav­age noted in a news­let­ter to his na­tional ra­dio flock pub­lished Sun­day.

“I think he needs to sit down with a 10-point agenda. Make it the Ten Com­mand­ments of Trump. Just make it sim­ple. That’s how God did it. God could have writ­ten a thou­sand com­mand­ments, and peo­ple wouldn’t re­mem­ber any of them,” the host added.

DON­ALD J. TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT

A new an­a­lyst’s re­port claims that President Trump has an ex­cel­lent chance at win­ning a sec­ond term in the 2020 pres­i­den­tial elec­tion.

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