USA TODAY International Edition
The post- Christmas COVID surge is here
Vaccines and immunity could make it the last one
The press of new COVID- 19 cases has been unbearable. Following Thanksgiving, there was a substantial surge, largely attributable to close contacts during family and social gatherings. New cases began to climb about seven days after the holiday and trended upward for the next 2 1/ 2 weeks. But then, as we neared Christmas, there was a gradual reversal. Could this be the light at the end of the tunnel?
Over the past six months, the Clinical Excellence Research Center at the Stanford University School of Medicine has been collaborating with YouGov on national surveys that probe the relationship between the COVID- 19 pandemic, its effects on the economy, and how it influences social and economic behavior. The survey sample is demographically representative of the United States population.
In the most recent survey, completed just before Christmas, we asked respondents, “Did you attend a Thanksgiving gathering that included people who live outside of your household?” Those who replied yes were asked how many people attended. We found that about a third of Americans ( 34.2%) were at a Thanksgiving dinner that included an average of nine outsiders.
Media sources immediately shined a spotlight on the increase in COVID- 19 cases following these indoor gatherings. Certainly, we learned a lesson. Or did we?
During the few days leading up to Christmas, we had also asked, “Are you planning to attend a Christmas ( Hanukkah, Kwanzaa) celebration that includes people outside of your household?” The results were essentially identical to those for the Thanksgiving gatherings: 34.3% acknowledged planning indoor gatherings. The expected number of attendees ( 11 or more) was larger than for Thanksgiving.
Holiday political divide
The likelihood of attending the Thanksgiving and Christmas gatherings did not vary by region and was similar among Black, Hispanic and white respondents.
However, respondents who planned gatherings were nearly twice as likely to believe people can be trusted to voluntarily follow guidelines. In contrast, those who did not attend gatherings were significantly more likely to believe that government regulations were necessary for people to follow guidelines.
Those attending holiday events were about twice as likely to report they voted for Donald Trump compared with self- reported Joe Biden voters.
Distrust for government was also evident in a question about how confident respondents were on whether Biden was the legitimate winner of the 2020 election. Those certain that Biden won because of fraud were nearly three times as likely to have planned Christmas celebrations involving people outside their households.
The post- Thanksgiving COVID- 19 cases started appearing about seven days after the holiday. If indoor gatherings were responsible for that surge in December cases, we might expect to see a similar increase after Christmas.
In fact, we are. A slight uptick started on Dec. 31, about seven days following possible Christmas exposures. The increase has continued, reaching over 300,000 new cases Friday. Cases are up about 50% since Dec. 27.
Record deaths
Tuesday, with 4,327 deaths, was the deadliest day of the pandemic so far. And now there are new, more contagious variants to worry about.
Unfortunately, vaccines were not available until after Christmas, too late for them to have any effect. Hospitals, already saturated with COVID- 19 patients, now must accommodate yet another surge. If the post- Thanksgiving surge is an accurate model, the afterChristmas increase could start slowing down by Inauguration Day. However, that projection might be complicated by New Year’s celebrations.
The good news is that the combination of vaccines becoming available and an increasing number of people who are immune because of previous infections could mean that this surge will be the last one.
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