Lineup positions impact value
Many fantasy owners might pay scant attention to batting orders. “As long as my player is on the lineup card,” they figure, “I don’t particularly care where he appears.”
But while playing time is indeed a primary consideration, where a player hits in the order can matter, especially over the long haul.
Over a full season, each rung on the batting-order ladder is worth between 15 and 20 plate appearances, data show. That’s 15 to 20 opportunities to make something positive happen for a fantasy team.
There are other impacts as well. As readers probably know intuitively, hitting third, fourth or fifth in a lineup is the sweet spot for RBI opportunities. Meanwhile, hitting first or second will help produce runs scored, but chances to drive in runs will be harder to come by.
It also is common knowledge that the leadoff spot provides more stolen-base opportunities, while hitting eighth for a National League team (i.e., ahead of the pitcher) will curtail a player’s running chances.
With these considerations in mind, let’s look at a handful of somewhat surprising battingorder decisions after two weeks of play and examine how they might help or hurt certain players’ fantasy fortunes, if they hold throughout the season.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Boston Red Sox 22-year-old outfielder Andrew Benintendi was eased into action last season batting in the lower half of the order. But this year, Benintendi has been inserted into the two-hole, a spot from which he should score plenty of runs and benefit from the lineup protection of MVP runnerup Mookie Betts.
Conversely, to break up Boston’s right-handed bats, shortstop
Xander Bogaerts has been dropped to the sixth spot in the order, which could cost him a third consecutive season of 80plus RBI, if there is no rejiggering. For his part, Bogaerts is doing his best to make that a consideration, hitting .375 (all statistics though Sunday).
For the New York Yankees, longtime leadoff man Jacoby
Ellsbury has lost that duty after three years of declining stolenbase totals and an on-base percentage hovering around .330. That’s the bad news. The good news is that manager Joe Girardi has most often deployed Ellsbury in a run-producing spot in the order, meaning he could make a run at his best RBI total since 2014, when he had 70. Oddly enough, the new role has not hurt Ellsbury’s running game, as he had four stolen bases, only one of which came in a game in which he hit leadoff.
The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays have been using unconventional leadoff men against right-handed pitching. Outfielder Seth Smith and designated hitter Corey Dickerson are unlikely to develop stolenbase prowess suddenly. But the extra plate appearances might help each player juice his total number of home runs (even if a few of those are solo shots).
The Kansas City Royals apparently think the struggles of outfielder Alex Gordon last season were injury-related, as they have installed the veteran as their leadoff hitter. But Gordon might need to pick up the pace to hold on to that role, with a batting average of .188. At 33, a return to double-digit stolen bases is hardly a certainty, even as his batting average rebounds.
The Texas Rangers, too, are seemingly betting on a comeback candidate, having installed outfielder Carlos Gomez as their leadoff hitter in the early going. But, like Gordon, Gomez is off to a sluggish start, with plentiful strikeouts only slightly offset by the occasional home run. Conversely, shortstop Elvis
Andrus is off to a hot start, to the point that he has been making semi-regular appearances in the two-hole. Andrus’ disinclination to take a walk would make him a less-than-perfect fit for the leadoff spot if Gomez is ultimately moved down in the lineup, but it might give Andrus — who has more or less been a lock for 25 steals a season over his career — a bit more opportunity to stretch his legs on the basepaths.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
The Atlanta Braves have their version of Benintendi in shortstop
Dansby Swanson — i.e., a young player who got his feet wet hitting down in the order last season. He is settling in for what the team hopes will be a long run as the team’s No. 2 hitter.
Swanson, though, has shown signs of pressing in the early season. He is taking fewer walks, while collecting seven hits in his first 48 at-bats (.146).
While it is possible the Braves might bump him down in the order temporarily to help him catch his breath, they also might see working through such struggles as an essential part of the learning curve for a player they envision as a franchise cornerstone.
Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Cesar Hernandez has continued to thrive in the leadoff spot, a position he seized in late July last season and has refused to relinquish. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, while Hernandez possesses great speed, he has yet to figure out how to make much use of it on the basepaths. Last season, he was successful on 17 of his 30 attempts (57%), and he started this season just 1-for-2.
In addition, the high walk rate Hernandez posted in the second half of last season, which seemed to suggest a new approach at the plate, has receded back in line with his career norms. Nonetheless, he has a shot to maintain his current position among league leaders in runs scored if he can keep his batting average up.
There aren’t too many teams making it a priority to get their catcher up to the plate as often as possible, but the Miami Marlins are an exception.
After a season in which he saw some time in the leadoff spot, J.T.
Realmuto appears to be locked in as the team’s No. 2 hitter. The fast start to Realmuto’s season has featured, in addition to a couple of home runs, only one strikeout in his first 38 at-bats. At first blush, outfielder Kyle
Schwarber of the Chicago Cubs might seem like an odd fit for the leadoff spot, given his prodigious power and penchant for strikeouts. But his selectivity at the plate has helped keep his on-base percentage high, even as his batting average meanders in the .240s. Once No. 2 hitter Kris Bryant heats up (and he will), Schwarber’s runs scored should skyrocket.
It was hard to know what the Milwaukee Brewers had in first baseman Eric Thames after his sabbatical in South Korea, but the early returns are that he will be a guy who will thrive (if miss out on a few RBI opportunities) batting second, ahead of Ryan Braun. Among the encouraging early signs: Two of Thames’ six home runs have come against left-handed pitchers, against whom the pre-South Korea Thames had struggled mightily.
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