Absence of winning options shapes Afghanistan strategy
With little to go on, adding troops may be more of a message than an answer
President Trump’s new strategy for Afghanistan reflects the lack of viable options for winning a war that has dragged on for nearly 16 years with no end in sight.
“My original instinct was to pull out,” Trump said Monday, but the consequences of a withdrawal would be unacceptable. “A hasty withdrawal would create a vacuum that terrorists — including ISIS and al- Qaeda — would instantly fill,” he said.
That doesn’t mean there is any clear way forward. Trump's speech sounded more like a pep rally before military personnel at nearby Fort Myer, Va., than a major strategy overhaul. Trump would not discuss details about sending more troops, would not describe the kind of military or political outcome he wants or set any timetables for how long America's longest war would continue.
“We don’t have any good options, and we can’t predict the outcome of putting any of them into practice,” said Anthony Cordesman, a national security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
Trump’s approach, unveiled Monday night in a speech to Army troops at nearby Fort Myer, Va., could clear the way for the Pentagon to send several thousand more non-combat U.S. advisers to Afghanistan. Their orders: Boost support for the country’s military, which is struggling to contain the Taliban and other militant groups that have gained ground.
Trump has given Defense Secretary Jim Mattis authority to determine exactly how many more troops to deploy, a reflection of the president’s policy of delegating more authority to uniformed leaders.
Trump also wants to place more pressure on regional allies, such as Afghanistan’s neighbor, Pakistan, to help resolve the war through negotiations. The Taliban has received sanctuary and support from Pakistan and its powerful intelligence agency.
"We can no longer be silent about Pakistan’s safe havens for terrorist organizations, the Taliban, and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond," Trump said.
Previous administrations have also attempted to place pressure on Pakistan with mixed results.
Michael O’Hanlon, an analyst at the Brookings Institution, said Trump’s strategy probably will include a “carrot and stick” approach designed to enlist Pakistan’s help.
Trump’s policy is not a major shift from that of the Obama administration, which ended a direct U.S. combat mission but avoided a total withdrawal.
President Obama had drawn up a plan to withdraw nearly all U.S. forces before the end of his second term, but he delayed the drawdown in the face of growing Taliban strength.
"A core pillar of our new strategy is a shift from a time-based approach to one based on conditions," Trump said.
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“I find it hard to believe that this will be decisive,” said Seth Jones, an analyst at RAND Corp. “What it may do at least is send a message to the Taliban and people in the region that the United States is not going to withdraw.”
“I’m not sure we’re willing to make the commitment to turn this thing around.” Jack Keane, retired Army four-star general