On the road from Toronto to the Oscars
Film Fest could show us some contenders
Can you feel the promise of Oscar gold in the air? Thursday marks the launch of Toronto International Film Festival, where A-list stars including George Clooney, Angelina Jolie and Matt Damon will show off their wares. Our burning questions going in.
WHICH MOVIES WILL BREAK OUT OF THE PACK?
A tepid response in Toronto can sound a death knell for Oscar hopefuls, while a standing ovation means an strong advance toward the Academy Awards stage. This year, interest is brewing in social satire Downsizing (starring Matt Damon); Guillermo del Toro’s Cold War-era fairy tale The Shape of Water; power producer Harvey Weinstein’s The Current War, about the battle over electricity in Thomas Edison’s era (starring Benedict Cumberbatch); and Emma Stone’s Billie Jean King biopic Battle of the Sexes.
The best-picture race is “so wide open at this point,” says Dave Karger, special correspondent for IMDb.com. “Nothing except for Dunkirk seems to be a sure thing. There are a lot of spaces to be filled.”
WHO IS ALREADY GUNNING FOR BEST ACTOR?
All eyes are on Gary Oldman, who takes on the Winston Churchill biopic Darkest Hour. “Word is good,” says Anne Thompson, editor at large for film industry news site Indie-Wire, calling the former Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy nominee a “big candidate.”
Though hopes are high for Oldman, Toronto is also “where he could stumble,” says Tom O’Neil, founder of awards prognostication site GoldDerby.com. “Is this just another Churchill biopic? It needs to work very hard not to be.”
WILL ‘MOTHER!’ BE DIRECTOR DARREN ARONOFSKY’S NEXT ‘BLACK SWAN’?
Everyone seems curious about Aronofsky’s latest thriller, which stars Jennifer Lawrence and Ja- vier Bardem as a couple who renovate an old home and receive a peculiar collection of surprise visitors. “I’m curious to see if it can rise to the level of Black Swan, which was a film that took horror elements but really transcended any genre,” says Karger. “Can Mother! match that?”
WHAT’S THE WORD ON CLOONEY’S MOVIE?
The new dad of twins is bringing Suburbicon (and perhaps Amal?) to Toronto, a dark look at American values based on a Coen Brothers script and starring Damon, Julianne Moore and Oscar Isaac. Clooney last directed the disappointing Monuments Men, so the question becomes whether his 1950s-set satire can capture Oscar voters. “The Academy crowd really loves their Clooney,” says O’Neil. “There’s a lot of goodwill behind Clooney, hoping for the best.”
WHAT ABOUT BEST ACTRESS?
The race is wide open, particularly with Meryl Streep’s The Post still waiting in the wings. (It won’t be at the fest.) But Toronto is where breakouts happen: “It’s where we saw Brie Larson break out with Room and become the front-runner,” O’Neil says. “That’s going to happen with Sally Hawkins in The Shape of Water and Saoirse Ronan in Lady Bird.”
Most agree that Judi Dench, who reprises her Oscar-nominated Queen Victoria (from 1997’s Mrs. Brown) in the new Victoria & Abdul, also has a strong shot.
WHO ARE THE WILD CARDS?
Let’s talk about Margot Robbie. The actress takes on Tonya Harding in the highly anticipated I, Tonya, which will open on the prime second night of the festival without a distributor, much like Natalie Portman’s Jackie did last year before it swept into the Oscars race.
Other question marks include Angelina Jolie’s Netflix original First They Killed My Father, Denzel Washington’s Roman J. Israel, Esq. (a late entry to Toronto’s lineup) and Dees Rees’ Mudbound, a segregationist post-WWII tale snapped up by Netflix at Sundance Film Festival.
Finally, will Oscar odds coalesce around Molly’s Game, a poker drama directed by Aaron Sorkin and starring Jessica Chastain? “Hollywood has been desperate for years to give an Oscar to Jessica Chastain,” O’Neil says. If the film is well-received, “she could finally find the pony she can ride to victory.”