MONTANA
Incumbent: Democrat Jon Tester
Inside Elections rating: Tilt Democratic 2016 presidential election results: Trump: 56%, Clinton: 36%
Tester could have faced the state’s sole Republican congressman, Ryan Zinke, next year had Trump not named Zinke secretary of the Interior, removing a formidable competitor from the field.
The two-term Democrat with the distinctive flat-top haircut isn’t out of the woods. Montana voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016 and elected Republican Greg Gianforte to replace Zinke in Congress, even after Gianforte physically assaulted a reporter.
The state is not toxic for Democrats. Months before the special congressional election this year, Montanans re-elected Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock. Tester narrowly beat incumbent Conrad Burns in 2006 and edged out his 2012 opponent, then-congressman Denny Rehberg, by 4 percentage points.
State Auditor Matt Rosendale is the best known of three Republicans vying for the party’s nomination next year, and he sports the same buzzcut hairdo as Tester and many of the same “Make America Great Again” themes as Trump.