USA TODAY US Edition

‘Trump Effekt’ boosts Germany’s Merkel

She and her party appear headed to victory as antiimmigr­ant Alternativ­e for Germany sees support slipping

- Austin Davis

After Donald Trump was BERLIN elected U.S. president largely because of his anti-immigratio­n message, Germany’s ruling party feared a similar backlash here following its admission of 1 million migrants fleeing war and poverty since 2015.

It turns out there has been a backlash. But it is against Trump more than immigrants.

As Germany’s national election on Sunday nears, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is responsibl­e for opening the doors to migrants, seems headed toward a historic fourth term.

Her conservati­ve Christian Democratic Union party holds a comfortabl­e lead, and the anti-immigratio­n Alternativ­e for Germany (AfD) has seen its support shrink since its high a year ago, according to Germany’s Forsa Institute.

“Traditiona­l parties in Germany are enjoying more popularity now because of Trump,” said Philipp Geiger, spokesman for the Social Democratic Party, the other mainstream party running second to Merkel’s CDU.

The Social Democrats gained 23,000 new members in the past year, double what the party expected, Geiger said.

Merkel’s Christian Democrats saw a slight uptick in membership after Trump’s election.

By contrast, the AfD is now polling between 8% and 12%, down from 14% six months ago and 16% a year ago, polls show. Merkel’s effective management in absorbing so many migrants is a key reason. Despite the huge influx, Germany’s unemployme­nt remains low and the economy is humming.

“The problem with the AfD is ... they can tell you what is bad and complain about certain issues, but they can never tell you any alternativ­es,” said Olaf Boehnke, a senior adviser in Berlin with Rasmussen Global, a political think tank in Brussels.

German media have dubbed the gains by Christian Democrats and Social Democrats the “Trump Effekt” — broad voter rejection of Trump and his anti-immigratio­n, anti-European Union and anti-internatio­nalism views. Only 11% of Germans consider the American president trustworth­y, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey.

“Support of a united Europe and involvemen­t in internatio­nal policy and disavowing isolationi­sm has become more popular in the past year,” Geiger said.

German politician­s take jabs at Trump to boost their standings.

“The problem we have with Trump is his unpredicta­bility,” the Social Democrats’ leader, Martin Schulz, said during a Sept. 3 debate with Merkel.

“With whom are we supposed to talk?”

Merkel has rebuked Trump’s policies on several occasions and called on Europeans to “take our fate into our own hands” because they no longer have a reliable American partner.

Merkel — Europe’s longest serving leader — has taken steps in the past year to blunt any antiimmigr­ation backlash by slowing the influx of refugees to appease conservati­ve voters. But she also has strongly condemned rightwing extremism that embraces nativist policies.

“People no longer believe that ... is the solution to the problems we have and the challenges and threats we’re facing,” Boehnke said.

The AfD was founded in 2013 in opposition to the euro currency used by 19 countries. It shifted to an anti-immigratio­n platform in response to Merkel’s opendoor policy.

Despite its recent drop in the polls, the party likely will meet the 5% threshold needed to win its first seats in the national parliament, or Bundestag.

Florian Hartleb, a political analyst in Berlin, said it’s “wishful thinking ” to believe that the “hour of populism in Europe is over just because the bell isn’t tolling as loudly.”

“Despite their difficulti­es, the AfD is still strong,” Hartleb said. “This is the first time in the postwar era in Germany that an extreme right-wing party will enter the German Bundestag.”

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