SEISMIC SHIFT IN AVIATION
More airlines say two engines are better than four
Could the end be near for passenger flights on four-engine jets?
That’s a question Boeing and Airbus may soon have to answer as sales of their four-engine passenger planes languish at the world’s two biggest airline manufacturers.
That Boeing ’s humped 747 — perhaps the world’s most-recognizable jet — and Airbus’ mammoth A380 “superjumbo” jet struggle to find traction among passenger airlines may come as a surprise. Having a lifespan measured by decades, the most recent models to roll off assembly lines will probably remain in service for the foreseeable future. But the production of the passenger versions of those jets is in limbo amid a seismic shift in the aviation industry.
Airbus has received 317 orders — and none since 2016 — for its massive A380. By contrast, its twin-engine A350 — which first began flying for airlines in 2015 — has racked up nearly 850 orders.
It’s been a similar story at Boeing, which counts 47 total orders for its latest passenger version of the 747, the “747-8 Intercontinental.” Though the 747’s immediate future seems secure as a freighter, Boeing acknowledged it doesn’t expect much forward demand for the passenger variant of the jet.
Boeing ’s twin-engine 787 model has enjoyed strong sales. Since 2013, Boeing has received orders for nearly 490 of its 787s. Although 777 sales have been sluggish recently, the widebody remains one of the best-selling models in the world.
Analysts say advances in engine technology and fuel efficiency have made twin-engine jets the go-to choice when airlines look to update their fleets.
Patrick Smith, host of the Ask the Pilot website, says economics swung the pendulum — perhaps irreversibly — toward two-engine passenger planes.
“It’s pretty simple: Why do with four what you can do with two? It’s going to be simpler and less expensive,” Smith says.
A crucial swing toward two-en- gine jets is due to the evolution of “ETOPS” guidelines for long-haul flights. ETOPS — originally an acronym for “Extended Range Operation with Two-Engine Airplanes” but shortened to the simpler “Extended Operations” — was a 1980s-era set of guidelines requiring twin-engine jets to stay within 90 minutes of the nearest diversion airport.
It was a safety precaution to guard against an in-flight engine failure. But as engines became more powerful and more reliable, two-engine jets have increasingly been permitted to fly farther from diversion points. That’s opened direct routes across the planet — routes two-engine planes previously weren’t permitted to fly for regular flights.
That helped set the stage for the popularity of Boeing ’s 777. A two-engine widebody that made
As engines have become more reliable, two-engine jets have increasingly been permitted to fly farther from diversion points.
its first flight in 1994, the “triple-seven” quickly won market share among carriers flying such routes, thanks to its long range and economic operation. The aircraft’s range and capacity — both for passengers and cargo — make it competitive with the 747, but its operating costs are much lower.
“Pretty much every 777-300 that you see today would, in decades past, have been a four-engined 747,” Smith says.
Trips that required multiple stops or long layovers at an inconvenient stopping point are more likely to be served with either new non-stop or quicker one-stop options.