What to watch for in NFL’s second half
Expect Tom Brady and the defending champion Patriots to take off
Forty things to watch for in the second half of the NFL season.
1. Look out for the New England Patriots. While we spent a lot of time discussing the Super Bowl champs’ demise in September, they’re now 6-2 — tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the AFC’s best record.
2. Why might the Pats be so dangerous moving forward? It starts with QB Tom Brady, who leads the NFL in passing yards and has adjusted to life without WR Julian Edelman. Having a deep and diverse running game helps, too.
3. But the biggest reason for optimism in New England is a defense that, though ranked last in yards allowed, has held its last four opponents to 17 points or fewer.
4. Speaking of the AFC East, the Buffalo Bills are trying to reach the
The best remaining game on the schedule could be the Week 15 game between the Patriots and Steelers.
playoffs for the first time since 1999. They enter Week 10 just one game behind New England but have two opportunities to beat the Patriots in December.
5. A cold dose of reality: Brady is 26-3 all time against Buffalo.
6. The best remaining game on the schedule could be the Week 15 game between the Patriots and Steelers at Heinz Field — a matchup that seems likely to determine home-field advantage in the AFC.
7. However, Pittsburgh-New England might also lack major seeding ramifications. The Steelers face the winless Browns and three teams currently using backup quarterbacks (Indianapolis Colts, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans) in the second half. Meanwhile, five of the Patriots’ next six games are on the road.
8. The primary question for the Steelers is whether they can continue relying so heavily on RB Le’Veon Bell. He’s on pace for 388 carries and 458 total touches, a pace that seems unsustainable, especially given his injury history late in the year.
9. Circle this Week 14 game on your calendars now (because we bet NBC already has): Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles against Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams. The two young quarterbacks, the top two picks of the
2016 draft, and their teams have been spectacular.
10. Wentz leads the NFL with 23 touchdown passes. It isn’t a fluke. He’s in complete command of the offense, and his mobility, timing and rapport with TE Zach Ertz and WR Alshon Jeffery have made the Eagles a mustwatch.
11. It’s a crowded race, but Sean McVay has to be the leading candidate for coach of the year. He’s totally turned Goff and the Rams around after a disastrous 2016. Goff is 6-2 this year after going 0-7 as a rookie and has already led the Rams to more points in eight games
(263) than they had all last year (224). 12. The Chargers, meanwhile, are currently on the losing end of the Fight For L.A. And they have one more very notable home game on the schedule that likely won’t feel very hospitable: Week 17 against the Oakland Raiders, who have a very sizable Southern California fan base. That game could feel like the Bolts are back in the Black Hole.
13. Speaking of Week 17, among divisions that could be up for grabs in a winner-take-all matchup is the AFC South, with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans facing off in Nashville. Both are currently tied for the division lead at 5-3 and poised to claim the crown from the battered Texans.
14. Currently atop the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints have a prime opportunity to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Four of the Saints’ last five games are against division opponents, and they’ve already handled the Carolina Panthers this season.
15. Teams are allowed to bring two players back from injured reserve this year. A few to watch: Carolina TE Greg Olsen, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers and two players from the Arizona Cardinals, RB David Johnson and QB Carson Palmer. Olsen, who suffered a broken bone in his foot in Week 2, has the best chance to return.
16. Another player expected back soon is Minnesota Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater, who hasn’t played since suffering a horrific non-contact knee injury in a preseason practice last year. With another knee injury clouding Sam Bradford’s outlook, Bridgewater’s anticipated return comes at an ideal time.
17. The Vikings have a playoff-caliber defense and look like the front-runner to win the NFC North. But who could have predicted months ago Minnesota could make a postseason push with either Case Keenum or Bridgewater at quarterback?
18. The Ezekiel Elliott legal drama continues and could now have playoff ramifications. As court rulings continue to delay Elliott’s six-game suspension (in hopes of having the punishment tossed altogether), the chances increase that he could miss January games should the NFL ultimately prevail in court ... and if Elliott’s Dallas Cowboys make it that far.
19. Elliott has scored six touchdowns in Dallas’ current three-game winning streak. Sure, the Cowboys can talk up Alfred Morris and Rod Smith all they want, but a suspension of Zeke now would be significant for a team that finally looks like an NFC contender again.
20. The race for the No. 1 pick of the
2018 draft is on, with the winless Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers jockeying for position. But don’t count out the one-win New York Giants, ei- ther, who visit the 49ers this weekend.
21. It’s already fun to think about what each of those teams might do should they land the top pick, especially now that the Niners have acquired former Patriots backup Jimmy Garoppolo, their likely quarterback of the future.
22. If the Colts, who will play the rest of the season with Jacoby Brissett under center after finally placing Andrew Luck on injured reserve, are in position to take a top passer next spring, would they consider it? Might they put Luck on the trade block? Or will new general manager Chris Ballard just package next year’s first-rounder in a bid for multiple picks so he can finally put better players around Luck?
23. Incidentally, with Garoppolo now in Northern California, it appears Kirk Cousins’ long-anticipated reunion with 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is off. But Cousins is having another Pro Bowl-caliber season and will be in position to take a pricey seat in the game of quarterback musical chairs if the Washington Redskins just can’t afford to franchise him for a third consecutive offseason at $34 million-plus.
24. For the 49ers, the biggest story line to monitor is whether Garoppolo will play. He was active as rookie QB C.J. Beathard’s backup in a Week 9 loss to Arizona, and Shanahan has been noncommittal about playing time for Garoppolo. But given the demands of this offense on any quarterback, the more work Garoppolo can get this year, the better. 25. Then again, after watching Beathard get hit 16 times by the Cardinals (including five sacks and one late hit that caused a melee), maybe holding off on rushing in the future franchise quarterback isn’t a terrible idea, either.
26. While we’re on the topic of bad teams, none has gone 0-16 since the 2008 Detroit Lions made ignominious history in that category. It seems unlikely either the Browns or 49ers — and certainly not both — would finish winless. (Cleveland waited until Week 16 to notch its first victory last year.)
27. Still, it’s hard to find a win on the Browns schedule. They do visit the Chargers, the only team they beat in 2016, on Dec. 3. But 0-16 would be fitting for Cleveland, given the team already lost its best player to injury (LT Joe Thomas) and was embarrassed by a trade-deadline snafu that prevented them from acquiring Cincinnati Bengals backup QB AJ McCarron, a former disciple of Browns coach Hue Jackson.
28. There will likely be a new sack champion this year, with Minnesota’s Everson Griffen, Jacksonville’s Calais Campbell and Dallas’ DeMarcus Lawrence the only players currently in double figures.
29. If the Jags do claim the AFC South, they can thank their pass rush. Jacksonville — #Sacksonville — is on pace for 70 sacks and could threaten the season record of 72, set by the 1984 Chicago Bears. Only two other teams have reached 70 sacks in a season, and none since the Vikings in 1989.
30. But don’t overlook the Chargers, who might have the league’s best passrush tandem in DEs Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram (81⁄ sacks apiece). The com2 mon thread with the Jags? Gus Bradley, the Chargers defensive coordinator, helped assemble that defensive roster in Jacksonville while he was the head coach. (The record for combined sacks — since the stat became official in 1982 — in a season by teammates is 39, when Vikings Chris Doleman (21) and Keith Millard (18) teamed up in 1989.)
31. The days before the trade deadline were wild this year. But which of the big names who changed teams (Garoppolo, new Jags DT Marcell Dareus, new Seattle Seahawks LT Duane Brown, new Ea-
gles RB Jay Ajayi or new Bills WR Kelvin Benjamin) will have the biggest impact?
32. At 4-4, the Atlanta Falcons are in serious danger of missing the playoffs a year after nearly winning their first championship. And don’t blame the Super Bowl hangover. Blame an offense that has sputtered following the departure of Shanahan to San Fran.
33. Kareem Hunt’s pace has slowed lately, but the Kansas City Chiefs running back still leads the NFL with 800 rushing yards. Could be back-to-back seasons with a rookie as the league’s leading rusher after Elliott did it last year. Hunt is on pace to finish with 1,422 rushing yards.
34. And might rookies even finish 1-2 in rushing again? The Bears’ Jordan Howard finished just behind Elliott in 2016. Jacksonville’s Leonard Fournette, who paces the NFL with 99.3 rush yards per game, still has a shot to catch up to Hunt.
35. Coaches who should not feel comfortable: the Giants’ Ben McAdoo, Cleveland’s Jackson, Indianapolis’ Chuck Pagano and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ Dirk Koetter.
36. Raiders QB Derek Carr and Lions QB Matthew Stafford became the first players in NFL history to sign deals averaging $25 million or more this year. So far, they’re a combined 8-8.
37. If new Cardinals RB Adrian Peterson averages 75.6 rushing yards over the last eight regular-season games, he’ll finish with an unlikely 1,000-yard season, which would be the eighth of his 11year career. Peterson has averaged 104.7 yards in three games with Arizona after starting the season in New Orleans.
38. And the Saints’ decision to deal Peterson last month was a trade that helped everyone. Since his departure, New Orleans RBs Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have averaged 215 yards from scrimmage over the last four games and totaled seven TDs. Makes life a lot easier for QB Drew Brees.
39. Expect the social justice protests — notably with the Seahawks, Eagles, 49ers and Miami Dolphins — to continue in some fashion as dialogue continues with the NFL. It will be interesting to see how Texans owner Bob McNair’s “inmates” comment and the potential inclusion of Colin Kaepernick in future meetings changes the tenor of discussions between the league and players.
40. Kaepernick will remain one of the most important names for the rest of the season — whether he signs a contract or not. His collusion claim against the NFL continues, and the expectation is that many of the most powerful owners (and perhaps even Commissioner Roger Goodell) will be deposed. And every time a team signs a quarterback — most recently, it was Houston adding Josh Johnson, who hasn’t thrown a pass since 2011 — Kaepernick’s anecdotal case to prove he’s been blackballed gets stronger.